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The Undiscovered Facts Behind Money Laundering, Cryptocurrency, and Banks

The Undiscovered Facts Behind Money Laundering, Cryptocurrency, and Banks
A week ago, a lot of documents known as the FinCEN documents were delivered, enumerating how the absolute greatest banks on the globe move trillions of dollars in dubious exchanges for suspected psychological militants, kleptocrats, and drug top dogs. Also, the U.S. government has neglected to stop it.
https://preview.redd.it/lme57jyyx1r51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=014ead7b7b812b3d6cbaf4a141eeec123589121b
The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network ("FinCEN"), an agency inside the Treasury Department, accused of battling tax evasion, psychological militant financing, and other monetary violations. An assortment of "dubious movement reports" offers a window into budgetary debasement, and how governments can't or reluctant to stop it. Benefits from destructive medication wars, fortunes stole from creating nations, and hard-earned investment funds taken in Ponzi plans, all course through money related establishments, in spite of admonitions from bank workers.
These reports are available to US law enforcement agencies and other nations’ financial intelligence operations. Although FinCEN is aware of the money laundering activities, it lacks the authority to stop it.
Money laundering is more than a financial crime. It is a tool that makes all other crimes possible - from drug trafficking to political crimes. And banks make it all possible. In a detailed expose, BuzzFeedNews named several of the most trusted banks. Current investigations show that even after fines and prosecutions, well-known JPMorgan Chase JPM (+0.9%), HSBC, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of New York Mellon BK (+0.8%) are all involved in moving funds for suspected criminals.
The current money related framework generally protects the banks and its heads from the indictment, inasmuch as the bank documents a notification with FinCEN that it might be encouraging crime. The dubious movement alert adequately gives the banks a free pass. Thus, unlawful finances keep on moving through banks into different businesses from oil to amusement to land, further isolating the rich from poor people, while the banks we have developed to trust, make everything conceivable.
As indicated by the United Nations, the assessed measure of cash laundered universally in one year is 2 to 5% of the worldwide GDP, or $800 billion to $2 trillion, with more than thank 90% of illegal tax avoidance going undetected today.
Simultaneously, the cryptocurrency industry has likewise been condemned for being an apparatus for tax evasion, in spite of insights expressing something else. It is assessed that solitary 1.1% of all digital currency exchanges are illegal. During its initial days, Bitcoin was generally connected with the Silk Road, an online dim net commercial center, where clients could buy weapons and unlawful medications namelessly.
Be that as it may, with the developing utilization of the Bitcoin organization, 42 million Bitcoin wallets, and checking, it is getting progressively conceivable to follow exchanges on open blockchains, while private financial exchanges stay covered up on display.
This week, I had a chance to plunk down with Chanpeng Zhao "CZ", the Founder and CEO of Binance, the biggest cryptographic money trade by volume on the planet, to get his interpretation of illegal tax avoidance both in the customary and the computerized fund universes.
Coming up next are a couple of features from our meeting:
Much obliged to you for going along with us today, CZ. As you would see it, for what reason is illegal tax avoidance especially destructive to our economy?
CZ: As monetary administration suppliers, it is our obligation to battle unlawful action. Everybody shares this duty. Yet, regularly once the principles are set up, individuals will attempt to get around the guidelines. What's more, there are individuals who simply need more business, and knowing or unconsciously will encourage these exchanges. We live in an intricate world, where one nation may see a go about as criminal and the other may not. Many individuals have a high contrast see, yet the world is really dim. Not all banks are honest and not all crypto organizations are terrible.
The digital currency industry has experienced harsh criticism for encouraging unlawful exchanges. How would you think conventional money and digital currency businesses analyze in such manner?
CZ: If you are utilizing Bitcoin, it is a straightforward record. When you have a couple of exchanges, you can follow the assets right back to where the coins were mined. So along these lines, blockchain really gives a straightforward record to everybody to dissect. In the event that you piece together a couple of information focuses and do a group examination, it isn't that difficult for a calculation to break down the beginning. Security coins are more earnestly to follow, yet their market top isn't unreasonably high, making bigger exchanges more troublesome. So to be completely forthright, it is a lot simpler to make illegal exchanges utilizing fiat than utilizing crypto.
How might you analyze the volume of illegal exchanges in crypto versus fiat?
CZ: It's likely a thousand times less. Essentially, for any important measure of cash you need to move in the crypto, it is exceptionally difficult to move it namelessly. There are outsider checking devices and information bases that can coordinate a considerable lot of the addresses to known people. The digital currency market top is little to the point, that in the event that you are moving a $100 million dollars, you can't do as such without experiencing an incorporated trade, making it considerably simpler to follow.
The cryptographic money space overall was begun by Satoshi Nakomoto as to some degree a campaign against the defilement of banks. Remarkably, the beginning square of Bitcoin contained a commentary tending to the bailouts of banks in 2008 and 2009 ["The Times 3 January 2009 - Chancellor on edge of second bailout for banks."] Is that ethos still alive in the digital currency space today, the drive to bring down the enormous person?
CZ: I have even more a fair view here. Some in the crypto space are against banks, fiat, and so forth., while others think digital forms of money are utilized by drug masters. Those are two extraordinary perspectives. My view is that digital money offers opportunities - a further extent of opportunity in exchanges, ventures, property, reserve funds, and so on. We are simply offering another choice for clients who esteem that opportunity and control. I'm not against any bank or any single individual. I think crypto offers a higher opportunity of cash, and thusly we need to give more individuals admittance to crypto… If I don't care for the banks, I simply don't utilize them.
Where do you feel the equalization lies between the legislature securing its residents as opposed to encouraging advancement?
CZ: I accept governments ought to be public administrations. They ought to give streets and fire departments...Whenever there is government intercession, it is awful for the economy. At whatever point an administration encourages one gathering, it naturally harms another. The administration influences the parity of the economy giving assistance to a gathering that isn't sufficiently serious to remain alive. So at whatever point an administration rescues huge banks, or any business so far as that is concerned, they just appear as though they are making a difference. I have confidence in a free economy, and I buy into that way of thinking unequivocally.
Much obliged to you for your understanding, CZ.
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[WTS] Bulk lot, straight out of the Bermuda triangle. Opening up the vaults!

Hi All. I have opened up my safe, the spot price smells tasty.


Shipping and Payment terms: I will accept trade in Gold, USD International Wire transfer, and some Bitcoin possibly. Preferably one buyer to take a bulk amount off me. This will be DHL'd off island at a cost of over 400$ in shipping and insurance covered by me and you split, however to make it worthwhile you will see there are some great pieces. Gothic florins, not one but 2 key date 1905 shillings which came from this batch. And I am sure Ill throw in a bunch of other crap like misc 90% us silver I cant be bothered to sell. Also note once a good buyer is lined up, I have way more than just this available so we can do further deals in the future https://imgur.com/a/eY8wQ1r . We must have a phone call, or video call to go over this lot before I ship it out, and you MUST have lots of feedback here or on Goldbugs. I will ship first.

The cheapest shipping option is a small package of DHL which will still be approx $50 so bear that in mind ordering small amounts.


Proof Pic: https://i.imgur.com/TwHh9qw.jpg
Rest of the pics: https://imgur.com/a/Ap8F0sZ

A load of govt issued silver bullion. To anyone interested in taking the lot please DM me and we can negotiate a price. I am looking at APMEX prices and basically going to say knock off a few dollars per coin on APMEX. https://i.imgur.com/o9pudVj.png is the full list of Govt issued silver. Buyer would be buying the full lot that I have left (will count later). Pricing - FOR EXAMPLE: Silver Maples are 32$ on APMEX random year. most of mine are privvy marked and thus I would be asking 28$ each (4$ discount) to apmex price.

Looking to get 28 $ per ounce scrap price on the British sterling coins. Take actual silver weight of the lot and * 28. Its all sterling .925 purity. There are two crowns, one 1890s and the other 1690s william the third.
181 Sixpence coins, 338 shillings (plus 2 1905 key dates), 50 florins, and 42 halfcrowns. https://www.silverrecyclers.com/Calculators/gbcoin_calculator.aspx

Oh I also have 83 Bermuda 1964 Crowns (50% silver) and like 9 or 10 1959 sterling silver Bermuda crowns.
Have lots of Bermuda Silver proof commemorative coins which I can come close to going rate on (28 per ounce or so).
Have 10+ ounces of Palladium too if there's a good buyer out there for 20,000 dollar in Palladium but that's not available until after a deals done.
submitted by coopsta133 to Pmsforsale [link] [comments]

D100 Ways to Mess With "I wish for all the gold in the world!"

  1. It rains down on the character and kills them
  2. Infinite gold is just a single gold piece that constantly reappears in your pocket after being spent
  3. That's the gold from the town treasury used to pay it's workers, now there's rioting in the streets
  4. Can't be arsed to go through all the comments but all the gold could teleport back into the interior of the world - to the mines it originated in or just like dispersed through the mantle again?
  5. All of the gold in the world is condensed into one single coin that flotas in front of the wishmaker for a few seconds. When he goes to grab it, it stops floating and the combined mass of all the gold in the world is to heavy for any mortal to hold. It tears through his hand and throws him to the ground, leaving a 20 meter wide crater where the coin landed. Nothing can pick up the coin, but that just means that no one can steal it from the wish maker.
  6. Everyone in the world gains the belief that gold is your personal property and feels weird about possessing it. It's like an old roommate's CDs, or an ex boyfriend's hoodie. They'll put the same amount of effort into returning it to you, but only when it's convenient. You can't really spend it anywhere either, unless they have an unhealthy desire for your possessions.
  7. "ok it's all yours, go get it". (no gold moves)
  8. Trade continues with coins made of other metals, and gold is a weird fringe metal that nobody will honor
  9. All your gear is now gilded, and all other gold coins lose their color. Nobody other than you remembers the old color of gold
  10. The uncaring diety that granted your wish also brought all the dragons that guarded hoards of gold
  11. All the gold from underground bursts from the earth in front of you, with no convenient way to move it.
  12. All the gold in the rest of the world disappears. Widespread chaos and confusion reigns. Literally all the gold in the world is carried in his pack. No gold in temple decorations.. magical items with gold no longer work.. etc.
  13. The world is not defined as this world. You got all the gold in the only diamond world, so, none.
  14. "All the gold in the world" was a poem written by a bad bard. You get a worthless piece of paper with a lackluster poem.
  15. "All the Gold" is almost dead nag of a riding horse and was in the world. The rapid trip to get to you kills it.
  16. You are encumbered by the gold in your possession and can not empty your inventory fast enough to escape encumbrance in the middle of nowhere. (Hope a town eventually forms around you fast.)
  17. You get what you wish and everyone and everything else knows it, but, you do not immediately know. (good luck with all the thieves, assassins, nobles, bandits, demons, etc. gunning for you and your gold.)
  18. Every creature that falls under "fae" or similar are forced to deliver the gold to you. Everyone from a common fairy to fae deities come one after the other, each with only one gold piece until you have all the gold in the world. They're concious of their actions but can't move freely until the deed is done. Who knows what they'd do to you once they regain control of their bodies
  19. You get the gold... but its somewhere. Good luck finding it.
  20. All the gold in the world, except for what’s on your person, vanishes in an instant.
  21. All gold within 60’ of the wish maker flies to them as metal to a powerful magnet and sticks to them. They can only remove gold from their body that they are giving/donating to a person, cause, church, or kingdom/city-state, empire etc. (the person must be a stranger or passing acquaintance, no more than that, or they are using as payment for goods or services or repaying a financial debt. STR checks for movement and CON checks to remain standing will eventually be needed.
  22. Gold-rust monster.
  23. They get all the gold in the world in a spendable and secure manner. But some of that gold is cursed by various wizards and magical entities in various ways for various reasons. The owner of it now bears at least a dozen unrelated curses, maybe more.
  24. You get all the gold but now no one has any so it holds no value. We move back into a barter system until a new form of currency can be established.
  25. They get midas' touch and everything they touch turns into gold but if they touch a creature the creatures gains +5 ac and can still attack and move normally
  26. The character becomes coated in gold, lowering mobility but greatly increasing defense
  27. All gold not owned by them turns into silver.
  28. They get their gold, only to find that the primary currency is now platinum. Gold is now only used as a component some spells, or for the properties of the material itself.
  29. All the gold in the world disappears. There is no gold, so you have all that there is.
  30. The gold stays where it is but technically IS their property. Good luck convincing everyone else that...
  31. All of the gold in the world immediately teleports to their location, killing the PC immediately via crushing and flattening entire cities at once beneath thousands of tons of gold ore, coins, and dust
  32. Ok, you now own all the gold in the world. However, it is still located exactly where it was before. You own it but it hasn't moved. Go get it if you want. And try convince the current possessor of it that you are the owner.
  33. All the gold comes with all the dragons...
  34. .. they cant physically shift the huge mountain of gold and people come from far and wide to take a wheelbarrow full of gold that is too large to be protected by the party..
  35. Theres no gold anywhere else so everyone reverts to spending lead coins instead. Gold decreases in value substantially. ...
  36. All the gold in the world technically belongs to the player but it's still wherever it was before he/she owned it. It now depicts the players head on every coin and people everywhere say things like "hey I know you you're from money!" Etc
  37. It’s in bitcoin, what’s bitcoin? Just wait a couple thousand years.
  38. Because wishes are directed to the gods themselves, and they see the entire universe as their "world" the gold from all around the universe is summoned to the PC's or NPC's location, the sheer amount of gold is so large that the entire planet is destroyed, along with any moons it might have, if the dm decides that the universe the campaign is in is very very very VERY rich in gold, he might aswell say that because so much gold was teleported to a specific location, it collapsed upon itself and formed a black hole.
  39. Your players hear a loud, familiar sound of earth moving as if an earth elemental started traveling beneath them. Your player hears something rustle in the grass, PC looks down and there, under a dead leaf, lies a single spec of gold ore. Pulled from the earth they stand on the gold ore inside the earth always moves up towards the player. If they stay in one spot for longer than a week it begins to pile.
  40. It is in one enormous coin, and nobody can make change. You try to break it into smaller pieces, but are stopped by the authorities because it has the emperor's face on it.
  41. Everyone else will see the color gold as a muted grey.
  42. You now possess all the gold in the world, but now everyone wants to kill you for it
  43. The wisher get the world's supply of fool's gold (pyrite). Hope they enjoy the irony.
  44. Every sentient creature is "informed" that you are now the owner of all the gold in the world. No gold actually moves anywhere and it is up to you to enforce your righteous claim.
  45. The color "gold" is suddenly drained from all things which become more brown or yellow. Now only you can bestow this color onto objects and creatures.
  46. You get your wish, but no one has any gold left so the economy crashes.
  47. All the gold in the world includes the gold guarded by every dragon. Bringing the gold to you also brings you its previous owner or notifies them of your act.
  48. This could also be applied to innumerable other monsters as well.
  49. At first, the gold rivers streaming through the air above the wisher's location is amazing. Verucai Saltberry can eat her heart out. Then, as the rivers make landfall, a nervous quiet overcomes all those who witness the spectacle.
  50. All the gold in the world now rains down upon their location.
  51. After half of one hour, 2d12 * 10 acres are covered in anything made of gold. Coins. Ore. Candelabras. You name it. I don't think there are enough dice to calculate the weight...
  52. Hot molten gold floods in your direction
  53. The world decides that gold is now useless since no one has it. They switch to using electrum.
  54. You get it. Exactly as you intended, all the gold coins in the world. But, every dragon, king, crime boss, even members of your own party just had all their gold stolen from them, and they aren't happy about it.
  55. The color gold dissapears from everything in the world unless it is owned by the wisher. Gold is suddenly indistinguishable from silver except by alchemists and smiths and dragons. As a trade currency it becomes almost worthless. The economy plunges into turmoil and as the value of gold plummets so do dragons interest in it. The land devolves into chaos as they suddenly struggle to work out wealth. Gems and iron both skyrocket in value. Dragons, furious at their essentially worthless hordes that they’ve amassed over the years rage across the land. Gold dragons go black. They’ve lost their color. There is a sudden increase in black dragons. Chaos takes hold and the black dragons start taking over the land.
  56. All the gold in the world disappears leaving only what they have on their person
  57. The dragons of the world soon realize where their horde has been taken. They all have you in their sight.
  58. It’s in one solid brick that’s practically worthless for the size
  59. You find yourself atop a mountain of all of the world's gold. Every greedy dragon in the world will soon be converging on your location to fight for this prize, with you in the middle. This being all the gold, that pile includes the scales from every gold dragon in the world, which you've just forcibly torn apart with your wish. Even the good-aligned dragons now see you as a genocidal monster that must be destroyed for the safety of their own kind. Your death is suddenly the singular goal that unites almost every dragon in the world. Also, all Electrum becomes a sort of brittle silver. That will please our DM, who hates having to include electrum coins in currency conversions.
  60. "Granted" and it seems as if nothing happens.Then, after a moment passes, there is a slight thump nearby.And then something light hits the player, rattling off of him, looking down he sees a small, wonderful necklace with a lithe, golden chain attached to it.And then a coin lands next to it.And then another.And another.The sound of falling gold escalates, turning into a storming, crashing chaos as all gold in the entire world falls from the sky in a roaring hail of death.And then all is silent, coins, jewelry, ore, newly refined gold and everything else stands as a small mountain where once there was a campsite and a forest, all of the players are dead or dying underneath that silent, golden hill.
  61. The planet's core loses all of its gold, which, in a supercritical molten state, appears floating as a series of masses overhead. This explodes and showers the area in forcefully-flung chunks of gold. Good job.
  62. The gods of wealth and trade are suddenly obliterated, and you are filled with divine power contained only by your mortal vessel, which wrecks havok on the divine realms and the mortal world. You probably don't survive. Good job.
  63. The gold is helpfully contained for you, and only consists of gold coins! ...Unfortunately, they appear in every single container or vessel you own or touch, forever, making it impossible to eat or drink except off the ground and makes clothing, home ownership, or trade tricky. Good job.
  64. They now own the license to obscure Half-Orc Bard Elzic Pagavian's folk album "All the gold in the world". Elzic is, however, an extremely competent adventurer and will not stand for having his art stolen out from under him.
  65. The power behind the wish misunderstands the intent and makes the wisher the only person to have a thing of that color.
  66. They get all the gold in the world, being the only one to posses gold, it becomes useless and the world's currency standards change.
  67. They didn't specify which world, molten gold pours in from a fire world
  68. Granted, since they specified “in the world” they now have a mountain sized pile of unrefined and impure Gold Ore, this pisses off all the Dwarvern clans as each ones mining operation is funded mostly by processing and selling Gold and similar materials. You and the party are now enemies of every dwarf Clan and their allies.
  69. I started an entire campaign with a similar premise involving a lamp, an efreet, and a Wish. I had a kingdom's worth of gold appear in a magical bag (like a bag of holding), but it was a solid cube that couldn't be pulled through the tiny opening of its container. Made for a lot of memorable scheming on the part of the players!
  70. They get all the gold in the world, the economy is no longer based on gold as there is none in circulation, brass coins replace gold coins
  71. You immediately stand upon a mountain of all the gold in the world. Seeing as you are the only one who has any, Silver becomes the dominant currency, making gold worthless. In addition, you piss off several dragons with hoards. At the same time, most kingdoms fall into financial ruin as they desperately attempt to find a new currency. While all this is happening, sinkholes begin to appear around the world as huge underground deposits of gold have vanished, allowing the ground to give way.
  72. All the gold not owned by the players is suddenly converted into silver. Currency now takes up 10x the amount of space which means any storage suddenly becomes limited.
  73. For the wealthy lords, it’s a nuisance that their pockets are suddenly weighed down or overflowing. For the banks that have just exploded... it’s a different matter.
  74. All the gold deposits from underground are drawn to the PCs creating huge destructive geysers and destroying everything in their path on the way to them.
  75. All the gold deposits from underground are drawn to the PCs creating huge destructive geysers and destroying everything in their path on the way to them.
  76. They start magnetically attracting every coin they walk by forever.
  77. All the gold in the world disappears and the world is changed to a paper-money system. The gold you have is the only gold remaining in the world, but it is useless as a currency. Maybe some alchemist will buy it from you?
  78. The rest of the gold in the world disappears, all that's left is what three player has on them
  79. Assuming they mean currency they're giving all the gold in the world translated into copper and they need to find a way to haul the several million metric tons of copper they have now. assuming they mean or they are now surrounded by all currently existing veins of unrefined gold ore
  80. The player now owns all the gold in the world... And the accompanying tax bill.
  81. Elderly people appear
  82. You get all the Gold in the world, and everyone is hunting you for thievery
  83. Gold is molten, appears in your pocket
  84. total collapse of the gold economy because there’s a lot more gold beneath the crust than in it, and it’s all technically in the world
Contributions by: Everyone who commented
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The Day Advances | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - January 2020

The day advanced as if to light some work of mine
Thoreau, Walden
This is my thirty-eighth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $813 282
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 802
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $83 162
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 472
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $178 121
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $34 965
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $272 399
Telstra shares (TLS) – $2 046
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $8 970
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 492
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $106 701
Secured physical gold – $17 252
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $14 755
Bitcoin – $153 530
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $18 365
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 534
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477
Total portfolio value: $1 873 325 (+$94 067)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.8% (2.2% under)
Global shares – 22.6%
Emerging markets shares – 2.4%
International small companies – 3.1%
Total international shares – 28.1% (1.9% under)
Total shares – 70.9% (4.1% under)
Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds – 4.5%
International bonds – 9.5%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 6.6%
Bitcoin – 8.2%
Gold and alternatives – 14.8% (4.8% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month saw exceptional growth in the portfolio, with a net increase of $94 000 after a small fall last month.
[Chart]
This is the fastest growth in the past half year. It is also the second largest absolute increase in over three years of measurement.
[Chart]
As the histogram below - which counts the frequency of occurrences in a specified range of monthly value changes (with red denoting losses) - makes clear, this is one of the most positive outcomes in the three year record.
[Chart]
The sources of portfolio growth were generally buoyant global and Australian share markets. Just under half of the growth was also due to an increase in the price of both gold securities and Bitcoin. In addition, even bond holdings increased in value over the period.
Distribution payments from the Vanguard retail funds, as well as the exchange-traded funds VAS, VGS and A200 were made through this month.
These totalled around $14 000 and have begun to be gradually fed back into the portfolio. This is a process which will occur through to June - with new investments twice per month. So far this has led to additional purchases in Vanguard's Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) to maintain the target allocation of Australian equities making up 60 per cent of all equity holdings.
The bond allocation of the portfolio continues to be notionally under its target, but has not yet reached a position where further balancing investments are warranted. Fully excluding the value of Bitcoin, for example, it still sits on its target allocation of 15 per cent of the portfolio.
If the same calculation is done for equities, they sit just above their target, at 77 per cent, and have drifted higher since early last year. Over the past months my position has been to take no portfolio balancing actions based purely on the volatile value of Bitcoin over time, and this remains my approach.
There is no perfect answer to this issue - assigning no value to Bitcoin and ignoring it for asset allocation purposes is inconsistent with its role in the portfolio. Pushing either equity or bond allocations sharply out of target boundaries merely due to short-term Bitcoin movements is also not warranted. Taking a backcast 'moving average' approach might be one statistical solution, but I am not yet convinced it would do more than moderate the appearance of the issue.
While expenditure has been higher over the holiday period, on average the gap between the rolling three-year average of distributions and credit card expenditure continues to close, and sits at just over a $300 per month gap at present.
Flags of convenience - estimating hedging in the portfolio
This month, out of a curiosity carried over from my recent review of my bond holdings, I have found the time to review of the overall currency hedging position of the portfolio.
There are some excellent online research papers (pdf) and blog pieces, such as this one from Passive Investing Australia, for those interested in learning more about some of the associated issues.
Currency risks have never previously been an object of much detailed thought on the journey. Rather, I had tracked a basic measure of broader exposure to foreign assets (including foreign equities, property securities, gold and more recently Bitcoin).
The additional issue of whether my exposure to these assets was unhedged (meaning exposure to gains and losses from the relative movement in the Australian dollar and the foreign currencies) or hedged was not really front of mind.
I suppose I had a dim awareness that some elements of the Vanguard retail funds that have until recently dominated the portfolio were hedged (for example, around 30 per cent of the Vanguard High Growth Diversified funds equity position is currency hedged), and judged that there was likely a well-considered rationale behind the amount of this hedging.
The first step to understanding where any exposures exist is to understand and measure the current state of affairs. As of today, this is broadly as set out below:
The decision to invest in Vanguard's International Shares ETF (VGS), which is unhedged, is a significant event in this regard.
The chart below shows the overall level of currency hedging in the international equity portfolio. Investments in VGS commenced from July 2019, and have started to affect the level of hedging.
[Chart]
As future contributions flow into VGS - absent any other action - a historically quite stable level of hedging will continue to fall. So far this is just a trend I am monitoring, until I have completed more research and thinking on the best approach in this area.
There are many complicated, and some unknowable, issues to consider and balance in hedging decisions, such as the likely denomination of future costs, and the historical and future relationships between domestic currencies and equity markets. None avail themselves of short or easy answers. Until I have thought my way through them more fully, I remain hesitant to make any definitive decisions.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio Objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 85.2% 115.9%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.9% 141.4%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 83.3% 113.3%
Summary
This month has seen rapid progress, propelling the portfolio closer to both old and new goals. The portfolio gains this month have already closed nearly half of the additional distance created by increasing my portfolio target at the beginning of the year.
The psychological forward push from distributions performance across 2019 (including, pleasingly, seeing it recognised here) has added to this sense of momentum. Additionally, this month I have also crossed the threshold to the target portfolio size needed to achieve 'credit card FI', a long-standing measure I have tracked.
The long summer break that has just ended in some ways seemed like a foretaste of what some versions of financial independence could feel like. With the minimum of planning there was time to read, rest, exercise and write largely as I pleased.
Returning to work following this has been infused with an unusual sense of being a temporary visitor in a new workplace. There is a greater philosophical detachment, in observing its rituals and rhythms, and less of a desire to seek to shape or resist its minutiae. Rather, what I have focused on is seeking to more deliberately make use of the freedoms it does not constrain, and pursue the best and most interesting use of the time that is outside of work hours.
Through these recent strong Australian and US equity markets, this article has been a useful reminder of the 'survivorship' risks of focusing a FI target too narrowly on past performance.
This excellent recent piece from Aussie HIFIRE has also, from another direction, usefully focused on separating out the decisions that do, and do not, materially matter in planning and executing on a passive indexing strategy over the long-term. For a challenging and entirely heterodox view on the potential long-term movement of equity markets upwards from here, this article has been thought-provoking.
Finally, this month I have been discovering the Jolly Swagman podcast, which has long and fascinating interviews with the ex-head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Nobel Prize winning US economist Robert Shiller speaking on bubbles and narrative economics.
During the long restful hours of summer break, the day has advanced. Though clouds may come in time, as the year starts - at least - the way forward looks bright.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Bitcoin 11 Years - Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far - Tooootally NOT a SCAM !!!!

That's right folks, it's that time again for the annual review of how Bitcoin is going: all of those claims, predictions, promises .... how many have turned out to be true, and how many are completely bogus ???
Please post / link this on Bitcoin (I am banned there for speaking the truth, so I cannot do it) ... because it'a way past time those poor clueless mushrooms were exposed to the truth.
Anyway, without further ado, I give you the Bitcoin's Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far ...
.
Bitcoin Achievements so far:
  1. It has spawned a cesspool of scams (2000+ shit coin scams, plus 100's of other scams, frauds, cons).
  2. Many 1,000's of hacks, thefts, losses.
  3. Illegal Use Cases: illegal drugs, illegal weapons, tax fraud, money laundering, sex trafficking, child pornography, hit men / murder-for-hire, ransomware, blackmail, extortion, and various other kinds of fraud and illicit activity.
  4. Legal Use Cases: Steam Games, Reddit, Expedia, Stripe, Starbucks, 1000's of merchants, cryptocurrency conferences, Ummm ????? The few merchants who "accept Bitcoin" immediately convert it into FIAT after the sale, or require you to sell your coins to BitPay or Coinbase for real money, and will then take that money. Some of the few who actually accept bitcoin haven't seen a customer who needed to pay with bitcoin for the last six months, and their cashiers no longer know how to handle that.
  5. Contributing significantly to Global Warming.
  6. Wastes vasts amounts of electricity on useless, do nothing work.
  7. Exponentially raises electricity prices when big miners move into regions where electricity was cheap.
  8. It’s the first "currency" that is not self-sustainable. It operates at a net loss, and requires continuous outside capital to replace the capital removed by miners to pay their costs. It’s literally a "black hole currency."
  9. It created a new way for people living too far from Vegas to gamble all their life savings away.
  10. Spawned "blockchain technology", a powerful technique that lets incompetent programmers who know almost nothing about databases, finance, programming, or blockchain scam millions out of gullible VC investors, banks, and governments.
  11. Increased China's foreign trade balance by a couple billion dollars per year.
  12. Helped the FBI and other law enforcement agents easily track down hundreds of drug traffickers and drug users.
  13. Wasted thousands if not millions of man-hours of government employees and legislators, in mostly fruitless attempts to understand, legitimize, and regulate the "phenomenon", and to investigate and prosecute its scams.
  14. Rekindled the hopes of anarcho-capitalists and libertarians for a global economic collapse, that would finally bring forth their Mad Max "utopia".
  15. Added another character to Unicode (no, no, not the "poo" 💩 character ... that was my first guess as well 🤣)
  16. Provides an easy way for malware and ransomware criminals to ply their trade and extort hospitals, schools, local councils, businesses, utilities, as well as the general population.
.
Correct Predictions:
  1. 2015-12: "1,000 dollar in 2015", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/ (Technically, this prediction is WRONG because the highest price reached in 2015 was $495.56 according to CMC. Yes, Bitcoin reached $1,000 in 2013 and 2014, but that's NOT what the prediction says).
  2. 2017-12: "10,000 in 2017", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
  3. 2018-04: $10,000 (by April 2018), Mike Novogratz, link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/, link #2: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/mike-novogratz-says-bitcoin-will-end-the-year-at-10-000
  4. 2018-12: $10,000 (by 2018), Tim Draper, link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/, link #2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AW5s6QkRRY
  5. Any others ? (Please tell me).
.
Bitcoin Promises / Claims / Price Predictions that turned out to be lies and bullshit:
  1. ANONYMOUS
  2. CENSORSHIP RESISTANT
  3. FRICTIONLESS
  4. TRUSTLESS
  5. UNCENSORABLE
  6. UNTRACEABLE
  7. SAFE
  8. SECURE
  9. YOU CANNOT LOSE
  10. NOT A SCAM
  11. PERMISSIONLESS
  12. GUARANTEED PRIVACY
  13. CANNOT BE SEIZED
  14. CANNOT BE CONFISCATED
  15. Be your own bank
  16. Regulation-proof
  17. NO MIDDLEMEN
  18. DECENTRALIZED
  19. Instantaneous transactions
  20. Fast transactions
  21. Zero / No transaction fees
  22. Low transaction fees
  23. A store of value
  24. A deflationary digital asset
  25. "A deflationary digital asset that no single human being can destroy."
  26. "an asset that is equally as dual use as a car, water, or any other traditional element that has existed."
  27. "Digital gold"
  28. Easy to use
  29. Cannot be stolen
  30. Cannot be hacked
  31. Can be mined by anyone
  32. Can be mined by anyone, even with an old computer or laptop
  33. Cannot be centralized
  34. Will return power back to the people.
  35. Not a Ponzi scam
  36. Not a Pyramid scam
  37. Never pay tax again
  38. Your gains cannot be taxed
  39. A currency
  40. An amazing new class of asset
  41. An asset
  42. A means to economic freedom
  43. A store of value
  44. The best investment the word has ever seen
  45. A great investment
  46. Efficient
  47. Scalable
  48. Stable
  49. Resilient
  50. Reliable
  51. Low energy
  52. Low risk
  53. Redistribute wealth to everybody
  54. No more have's and have not's
  55. No more US and THEM
  56. No more disadvantaged people
  57. No more RICH and POOR
  58. No more poor people
  59. Uses amazing new technology
  60. Uses ingenious new technology
  61. Satishi Nakamoto invented ...
  62. Segwit will solve all of Bitcoin's woes
  63. Lightning Network will solve all of Bitcoin's woes
  64. Limited by scarcity
  65. Can only go up in value
  66. Price cannot crash
  67. Has intrinsic value
  68. Value will always be worth more than cost to mine
  69. Adoption by investors is increasing exponentially
  70. Adoption by investors is increasing
  71. Adoption by merchants is increasing exponentially
  72. Adoption by merchants is increasing
  73. You are secure if you keep your coins on an exchange
  74. You are secure if you keep your coins in a hardware wallet
  75. You are secure if you keep your coins in an air-gapped Linux PC
  76. Will change the world
  77. "the next phase in human evolution"
  78. "Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet"
  79. Blockchain can solve previously unsolvable problems.
  80. "The only regulation we need is the blockchain"
  81. "Bank the unbanked"
  82. "To abolish financial slavery and the state's toxic monopoly on money."
  83. "To have better tools in the fight against the state violence and taxation."
  84. "To stamp information on a blockchain forever so we can bypass state censorship, copyrights, patents(informational monopolies) etc."
  85. Will destroy / overthrow FIAT
  86. Will destroy / overthrow the world's governments
  87. Will destroy / overthrow the banking system
  88. Will destroy / overthrow the world economies
  89. Will free people from tyranny
  90. Will give people financial freedom
  91. Will bring world peace
  92. Never going below $19K again
  93. Never going below $18K again
  94. Never going below $17K again
  95. Never going below $16K again
  96. Never going below $15K again
  97. Never going below $14K again
  98. Never going below $13K again
  99. Never going below $12K again
  100. Never going below $11K again
  101. Never going below $10K again
  102. Never going below $9K again
  103. Never going below $8K again
  104. Never going below $7K again
  105. Never going below $6K again
  106. Never going below $5K again
  107. Never going below $4K again
  108. Is NOT a Scam
  109. Hashing Power secures the Bitcoin network
  110. Untraceable, private transactions
  111. Guaranteed privacy
  112. Not created out of thin air
  113. Not created out of thin air by unregulated, unbacked entities
  114. Totally NOT a scam
  115. Is not used primarily by crimonals, drug dealers, or money launderers.
  116. 100% secure
  117. 2010 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  118. 2011 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  119. 2012 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  120. 2013 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  121. 2014 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  122. 2015 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  123. 2016 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  124. 2017 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  125. 2018 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  126. 2019 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  127. 2010: MASS ADOPTION any day now"
  128. 2011: MASS ADOPTION aany day now"
  129. 2012: MASS ADOPTION aaany day now"
  130. 2013: MASS ADOPTION aaaany day now"
  131. 2014: MASS ADOPTION aaaaany day now"
  132. 2015: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaany day now"
  133. 2016: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaany day now"
  134. 2017: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaany day now"
  135. 2018: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaaany day now"
  136. 2019: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaaany day now"
  137. "Financial Freedom, bro."
  138. no single entity, government or individual, can alter or reverse its transactions
  139. insurance against the tyranny of state
  140. Bitcoin has come to destroy all governments and bring about the libertarian utopia of my dreams.
  141. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 2+ years.
  142. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 5+ years.
  143. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 7+ years.
  144. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 9+ years.
  145. 1,000's of predictions of skyrocketing and/or never falling prices
  146. Escape the petty rivalries of warring powers and nation states by scattering control among the many. The Bitcoin Cash debacle proves that even the most cryptographically secure plans of mice and men often go awry. Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/9zfhb6/like_theres_only_one_flaw_with_buttcoin_crash/ea8s11m
  147. People will NEVER be able to welch out of bets or deals again. Nov-2018, Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/9zvpl2/the_guy_who_made_the_1000_bet_that_btc_wouldnt/
  148. "Everything will be better, faster, and cheaper.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  149. "Everything will be more connected.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  150. "Everything will be more trustworthy.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  151. "Everything will be more secure.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  152. "Everything that exists is no-longer going to exist in the way that it does today.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  153. "Everything in this world is about to get better.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  154. You are a slave to the bankers
  155. The bankers print money and then you pay for it
  156. Bitcoin is The Peoples Money
  157. Bitcoin will set you free
  158. Bitcoin will set you free from the slavery of the banks and the government Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/cd2q94/bitcoin_shall_set_you_free/
  159. ~~Bitcoin is "striking fear into the hearts of bankers, precisely because Bitcoin eliminates the need for banks. ~~, Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  160. "When transactions are verified on a Blockchain, banks become obsolete.", Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  161. SnapshillBot quotes from delusional morons:
  162. "A bitcoin miner in every device and in every hand."
  163. "All the indicators are pointing to a huge year and bigger than anything we have seen before."
  164. "Bitcoin is communism and democracy working hand in hand."
  165. "Bitcoin is freedom, and we will soon be free."
  166. "Bitcoin isn't calculated risk, you're right. It's downright and painfully obvious that it will consume global finance."
  167. "Bitcoin most disruptive technology of last 500 years"
  168. "Bitcoin: So easy, your grandma can use it!"
  169. "Creating a 4th Branch of Government - Bitcoin"
  170. "Future generations will cry laughing reading all the negativity and insanity vomited by these permabears."
  171. "Future us will thank us."
  172. "Give Bitcoin two years"
  173. "HODLING is more like being a dutiful guardian of the most powerful economic force this planet has ever seen and getting to have a say about how that force is unleashed."
  174. "Cut out the middleman"
  175. "full control of your own assets"
  176. "reduction in wealth gap"
  177. "no inflation"
  178. "cannot print money out of thin air"
  179. "Why that matters? Because blockchain not only cheaper for them, it'll be cheaper for you and everyone as well."
  180. "If you are in this to get rich in Fiat then no. But if you are in this to protect your wealth once the current monetary system collapse then you are protected and you'll be the new rich."
  181. "Theres the 1% and then theres the 99%. You want to be with the rest thats fine. Being different and brave is far more rewarding. No matter your background or education."
  182. "NO COINERS will believe anything they are fed by fake news and paid media."
  183. "I know that feeling (like people looking at you as in seeing a celebrity and then asking things they don't believe until their impressed)."
  184. "I literally walk round everyday looking at other people wondering why they even bother to live if they don't have Bitcoin in their lives."
  185. "I think bitcoin may very well be the best form of money we’ve ever seen in the history of civilization."
  186. "I think Bitcoin will do for mankind what the sun did for life on earth."
  187. "I think the constant scams and illegal activities only show the viability of bitcoin."
  188. "I think we're sitting on the verge of exponential interest in the currency."
  189. "I'm not using hyperbole when I say Satoshi found the elusive key to World Peace."
  190. "If Jesus ever comes back you know he's gonna be using Bitcoin"
  191. "If this idea was implemented with The Blockchain™, it would be completely flawless! Flawless I tell you!"
  192. "If you're the minimum wage guy type, now is a great time to skip food and go full ramadan in order to buy bitcoin instead."
  193. "In a world slipping more and more into chaos and uncertainty, Bitcoin seems to me like the last solid rock defeating all the attacks."
  194. "In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any filthy statist's blessing, but because I am enlightened by own intelligence."
  195. "Is Bitcoin at this point, with all the potential that opens up, the most undervalued asset ever?"
  196. "It won't be long until bitcoin is an everyday household term."
  197. "It's the USD that is volatile. Bitcoin is the real neutral currency."
  198. "Just like the early Internet!"
  199. "Just like the Trojan Horse of old, Bitcoin will reveal its full power and nature"
  200. "Ladies if your man doesnt have some bitcoin then he cant handle anything and has no danger sex appeal. He isnt edgy"
  201. "let me be the first to say if you dont have bitcoin you are a pussy and cant really purchase anything worldwide. You have no global reach"
  202. "My conclusion is that I see this a a very good thing for bitcoin and for users"
  203. "No one would do such a thing; it'd be against their self interests."
  204. "Ooh lala, good job on bashing Bitcoin. How to disrespect a great innovation."
  205. "Realistically I think Bitcoin will replace the dollar in the next 10-15 years."
  206. "Seperation of money and state -> states become obsolete -> world peace."
  207. "Some striking similarities between Bitcoin and God"
  208. "THANK YOU. Better for this child to be strangled in its crib as a true weapon for crypto-anarchists than for it to be wielded by toxic individuals who distort the technology and surrender it to government and corporate powers."
  209. "The Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet and is the next phase in human evolution. To avoid its significance is complete ignorance."
  210. "The bull run should begin any day now."
  211. "The free market doesn't permit fraud and theft."
  212. "The free market will clear away the bad actors."
  213. "The only regulation we need is the blockchain."
  214. "We are not your slaves! We are free bodies who will swallow you and puke you out in disgust. Welcome to liberty land or as that genius called it: Bitcoin."
  215. "We do not need the bankers for Satoshi is our saviour!"
  216. "We have never seen something so perfect"
  217. "We must bring freedom and crypto to the masses, to the common man who does not know how to fight for himself."
  218. "We verified that against the blockchain."
  219. "we will see a Rennaisnce over the next few decades, all thanks to Bitcoin."
  220. "Well, since 2006, there has been a infinite% increase in price, so..."
  221. "What doesn't kill cryptocurrency makes it stronger."
  222. "When Bitcoin awake in normally people (real people) ... you will have this result : No War. No Tax. No QE. No Bank."
  223. "When I see news that the price of bitcoin has tanked (and thus the market, more or less) I actually, for-real, have the gut reaction "oh that’s cool, I’ll be buying cheap this week". I never knew I could be so rational."
  224. "Where is your sense of adventure? Bitcoin is the future. Set aside your fears and leave easier at the doorstep."
  225. "Yes Bitcoin will cause the greatest redistribution of wealth this planet has ever seen. FACT from the future."
  226. "You are the true Bitcoin pioneers and with your help we have imprinted Bitcoin in the Canadian conscience."
  227. "You ever try LSD? Perhaps it would help you break free from the box of state-formed thinking you have limited yourself..."
  228. "Your phone or refrigerator might be on the blockchain one day."
  229. The banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, so why can't crypto do the same ???
  230. Central Banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, without any consequences or accounting, so why can't crypto do the same ???
  231. It's impossible to hide illegal, unsavory material on the blockchain
  232. It's impossible to hide child pornography on the blockchain
  233. Fungible
  234. All Bitccoins are the same, 100% identical, one Bitcoin cannot be distinguished from any other Bitcoin.
  235. The price of Bitcoin can only go up.
  236. "Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
  237. Scarcity
  238. The price of Bitcoin can only go up because of scarcity / 21 million coin limit. (Bitcoin is open source, anyone can create thir own copy, and there are more than 2,000+ Bitcoin copies / clones out there already).
  239. immune to government regulation
  240. "a world-changing technology"
  241. "a long-term store of value, like gold or silver"
  242. "To Complex to Be Audited."
  243. "Old Auditing rules do not apply to Blockchain."
  244. "Old Auditing rules do not apply to Cryptocurrency."
  245. "Why Bitcoin has Value: SCARCITY.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  246. "Bitcoin is the first scarce digital object the world has ever seen, it is scarce like silver & gold, and can be sent over the internet, radio, satellite etc.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  247. "Surely this digital scarcity has value.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  248. Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
  249. "May 2018 will be the last time we ever see $bitcoin under $10,000", Charlie Shrem, bitcoin advocate and convicted felon, 11:31 AM 3-May-2018, https://twitter.com/CharlieShrem/status/992109375555858433
  250. "Last dip ever.", AngeloBTC, 14 Oct 2018, https://mobile.twitter.com/AngeloBTC/status/1051710824388030464/photo/1
  251. "Bitcoin May Have Just Experienced its Final Shakeout Before a Big Rally", Joseph Young, coin shill, October 15, 2018 22:30 CET, https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-may-have-just-experienced-its-final-shakeout-before-a-big-rally/
  252. Bitcoin would be a buy if the price fell under $5,000., Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, 29-Jun-2018, https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-a-buy-below-5000-says-allianz-chief-economic-adviso
  253. 2013-11-27: ""What is a Citadel?" you might wonder. Well, by the time Bitcoin became worth 1,000 dollar [27-Nov-2013], services began to emerge for the "Bitcoin rich" to protect themselves as well as their wealth. It started with expensive safes, then began to include bodyguards, and today, "earlies" (our term for early adapters), as well as those rich whose wealth survived the "transition" live in isolated gated cities called Citadels, where most work is automated. Most such Citadels are born out of the fortification used to protect places where Bitcoin mining machines are located. The company known as ASICminer to you is known to me as a city where Mr. Friedman rules as a king.", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
  254. 2018-02: Bitcoin price to hit $27,000 by February 2018, Trace Mayer, host of the Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast, and self-proclaimed entrepreneur, investor, journalist, monetary scientist and ardent defender, Link #1: https://mobile.twitter.com/TraceMayestatus/917260836070154240/photo/1, Link #2: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  255. 2018-06: "Bitcoin will surpass $15,000 in June [2018]." John McAfee, May 25, 2018, https://bitcoinist.com/john-mcafee-says-bitcoin-will-surpass-15000-in-june/
  256. 2018-07: Bitcoin will be $28,000 by mid-2018, Ronnie Moas, Wall Street analyst and founder of Standpoint Research, http://helpfordream.com/2018/12/23/5-bitcoin-price-predictions-gone-wrong/.
  257. 2018-12: Bitcoin to reach a price of between 40,000 and 110,000 US dollars by the end of the 2017 bull run ... sometime before 2019, Masterluc, 26-May-2017, an anonymous "legendary" Bitcoin trader, Link #1: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/, Link #2: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  258. 2018-12: "There is no reason why we couldn’t see Bitcoin pushing $50,000 by December [2018]", Thomas Glucksmann, head of APAC business at Gatecoin, Link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  259. 2018-12: Listen up you giggling cunts... who wants some?...you? you want some?...huh? Do ya? Here's the deal you fuckin Nerds - Butts are gonna be at 30 grand or more by next Christmas [2018] - If they aren't I will publicly administer an electronic dick sucking to every shill on this site and disappear forever - Until then, no more bans or shadow bans - Do we have a deal? If Butts are over 50 grand me and Lammy get to be mods. Deal? Your ole pal - "Skully" u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018 https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/
  260. 2018-12: 1 bitcoin = 1 Lambo. Remind me on Christmas eve [2018] u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018, https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/dtn2pna
  261. 2018-12: Been in BTC since 2014 and experienced many "deaths" of BTC... this too shall pass... $10k end of the year. [2018] u/Exxe2502, 30-Jun-2018 https://reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/8uur27/_/e1ioi5b/?context=1
  262. 2018-12: "Yale Alumni prediction - 30 Grand by Christmas [2018] - and you my friend... you will be the one eating Mcafee's dick in 2020. :) -:", u/SirNakamoto, 15-Jun-2018, https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/8r0tyh/fdic_agrees_to_cover_bitcoin_losses_in_event_of/e0nzxq7
  263. 2018-12: "Impossible For Bitcoin Not to Hit $10,000 by This Year (2018)", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 22-Sep-2018, https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/09/22/billionaire-novogratz-impossible-for-bitcoin-not-to-hit-10000-by-this-yea
  264. 2018-12: "[Bitcoin] between $13,800 and $14,800 [by end of 2018]", Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 13-Dec-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/wall-streets-bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-we-are-tired-of-people-asking-us-about-target-prices.html
  265. 2018-12: "Bitcoin is going to be $15k-$20k by the end of the year (2018)", Didi Taihuttu, 1-Nov-2018, https://www.wsj.com/video/series/moving-upstream/the-bitcoin-gamble/85E3A4A7-C777-4827-9A3F-B387F2AB7654
  266. 2018-12: 2018 bitcoin price prediction reduced to $15,000 [was $25,000], Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 16-Nov-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/wall-streets-crypto-bull-tom-lee-slashes-year-end-forecast-by-10000.html
  267. 2018-12: "I want to be clear, bitcoin is going to $25,000 by year end (2018)", Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 5-Jul-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/07/05/tom-lee-i-want-to-be-clear-bitcoin-is-going-to-25000-by-year-end.html
  268. 2018-12: "Bitcoin could be at $40,000 by the end of 2018, it really easily could", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 21-Sep-2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lC1anDg2KU
  269. 2018-12: "Bitcoin will be priced around $50,000 by the end of the year (2018)", Bitcoin bull Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of BitMEX, 29-Jun-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/bitcoin-will-reach-50000-in-2018-says-founder-of-bitcoin-exchange.html
  270. 2018-12: "Bitcoin could definitely see $50,000 in 2018", Jeet Singh, cryptocurrency portfolio manager, speaking in January 2018 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, https://www.dcforecasts.com/new-prediction-says-bitcoin-hit-50000-2018/
  271. 2018-12: "Bitcoin will hit $100,000 this year (2018)", Kay Van-Petersen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, 17-Jan-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/16/bitcoin-headed-to-100000-in-2018-analyst-who-forecast-2017-price-move.html
  272. 2018-12: "Bitcoin price to surpass the $100,000 mark by the end of 2018", Tone Vays, 21-Sep-2017, https://www.ccn.com/prominent-bitcoin-trader-price-is-heading-towards-100000-in-2018/
  273. 2018-12: "Bitcoin’s Price Will Surpass the $100,000 Mark by the End of 2018", Anonymous ("author" obviously too embarrassed to put his name to such bullshit "articles"), Oct-2018, https://investingpr.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-for-2018/
  274. 2018-12: "Our [2018] year-end bitcoin target is $7700.", James Stefurak, Founder at Monarch Research. See article: "Experts Forecast Bitcoin will rise by 2019", REF: https://hackernoon.com/experts-forecast-bitcoin-will-rise-by-2019-f4af8807036b?gi=dfea3c30d6d8
  275. 2018-12: "... we’ll see the price rally reaching its all-time of high of around $20K before the end of 2018", Khaled Khorshid, Co-Founder at Treon ICO. See article: "Experts Forecast Bitcoin will rise by 2019", REF: https://hackernoon.com/experts-forecast-bitcoin-will-rise-by-2019-f4af8807036b?gi=dfea3c30d6d8
  276. 2018-12: Bitcoin will end 2018 at the price point of $50,000, Ran Neuner, host of CNBC’s show Cryptotrader and the 28th most influential Blockchain insider according to Richtopia,https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  277. Plus a whole host of wrong 2019 predictions (could not be included here because of post character limit issues), so please see my earlier post from 4 days ago: Ummm, remember those "Expert" Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2019 ..... ohhhhh dear ....., https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/eiqhq3/ummm_remember_those_expert_bitcoin_price/
.
But it's NOT all bad news, some claims and promises are yet to be determined:
  1. Never going below $3K again
  2. Never going below $2K again
  3. Never going below $1K again
  4. Any others ? Please let me know.
submitted by Crypto_To_The_Core to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Transcript of discussion between an ASIC designer and several proof-of-work designers from #monero-pow channel on Freenode this morning

[08:07:01] lukminer contains precompiled cn/r math sequences for some blocks: https://lukminer.org/2019/03/09/oh-kay-v4r-here-we-come/
[08:07:11] try that with RandomX :P
[08:09:00] tevador: are you ready for some RandomX feedback? it looks like the CNv4 is slowly stabilizing, hashrate comes down...
[08:09:07] how does it even make sense to precompile it?
[08:09:14] mine 1% faster for 2 minutes?
[08:09:35] naturally we think the entire asic-resistance strategy is doomed to fail :) but that's a high-level thing, who knows. people may think it's great.
[08:09:49] about RandomX: looks like the cache size was chosen to make it GPU-hard
[08:09:56] looking forward to more docs
[08:11:38] after initial skimming, I would think it's possible to make a 10x asic for RandomX. But at least for us, we will only make an ASIC if there is not a total ASIC hostility there in the first place. That's better for the secret miners then.
[08:13:12] What I propose is this: we are working on an Ethash ASIC right now, and once we have that working, we would invite tevador or whoever wants to come to HK/Shenzhen and we walk you guys through how we would make a RandomX ASIC. You can then process this input in any way you like. Something like that.
[08:13:49] unless asics (or other accelerators) re-emerge on XMR faster than expected, it looks like there is a little bit of time before RandomX rollout
[08:14:22] 10x in what measure? $/hash or watt/hash?
[08:14:46] watt/hash
[08:15:19] so you can make 10 times more efficient double precisio FPU?
[08:16:02] like I said let's try to be productive. You are having me here, let's work together!
[08:16:15] continue with RandomX, publish more docs. that's always helpful.
[08:16:37] I'm trying to understand how it's possible at all. Why AMD/Intel are so inefficient at running FP calculations?
[08:18:05] midipoet ([email protected]/web/irccloud.com/x-vszshqqxwybvtsjm) has joined #monero-pow
[08:18:17] hardware development works the other way round. We start with 1) math then 2) optimization priority 3) hw/sw boundary 4) IP selection 5) physical implementation
[08:22:32] This still doesn't explain at which point you get 10x
[08:23:07] Weren't you the ones claiming "We can accelerate ProgPoW by a factor of 3x to 8x." ? I find it hard to believe too.
[08:30:20] sure
[08:30:26] so my idea: first we finish our current chip
[08:30:35] from simulation to silicon :)
[08:30:40] we love this stuff... we do it anyway
[08:30:59] now we have a communication channel, and we don't call each other names immediately anymore: big progress!
[08:31:06] you know, we russians have a saying "it was smooth on paper, but they forgot about ravines"
[08:31:12] So I need a bit more details
[08:31:16] ha ha. good!
[08:31:31] that's why I want to avoid to just make claims
[08:31:34] let's work
[08:31:40] RandomX comes in Sep/Oct, right?
[08:31:45] Maybe
[08:32:20] We need to audit it first
[08:32:31] ok
[08:32:59] we don't make chips to prove sw devs that their assumptions about hardware are wrong. especially not if these guys then promptly hardfork and move to the next wrong assumption :)
[08:33:10] from the outside, this only means that hw & sw are devaluing each other
[08:33:24] neither of us should do this
[08:33:47] we are making chips that can hopefully accelerate more crypto ops in the future
[08:33:52] signing, verifying, proving, etc.
[08:34:02] PoW is just a feature like others
[08:34:18] sech1: is it easy for you to come to Hong Kong? (visa-wise)
[08:34:20] or difficult?
[08:34:33] or are you there sometimes?
[08:34:41] It's kind of far away
[08:35:13] we are looking forward to more RandomX docs. that's the first step.
[08:35:31] I want to avoid that we have some meme "Linzhi says they can accelerate XYZ by factor x" .... "ha ha ha"
[08:35:37] right? we don't want that :)
[08:35:39] doc is almost finished
[08:35:40] What docs do you need? It's described pretty good
[08:35:41] so I better say nothing now
[08:35:50] we focus on our Ethash chip
[08:36:05] then based on that, we are happy to walk interested people through the design and what else it can do
[08:36:22] that's a better approach from my view than making claims that are laughed away (rightfully so, because no silicon...)
[08:36:37] ethash ASIC is basically a glorified memory controller
[08:36:39] sech1: tevador said something more is coming (he just did it again)
[08:37:03] yes, some parts of RandomX are not described well
[08:37:10] like dataset access logic
[08:37:37] RandomX looks like progpow for CPU
[08:37:54] yes
[08:38:03] it is designed to reflect CPU
[08:38:34] so any ASIC for it = CPU in essence
[08:39:04] of course there are still some things in regular CPU that can be thrown away for RandomX
[08:40:20] uncore parts are not used, but those will use very little power
[08:40:37] except for memory controller
[08:41:09] I'm just surprised sometimes, ok? let me ask: have you designed or taped out an asic before? isn't it risky to make assumptions about things that are largely unknown?
[08:41:23] I would worry
[08:41:31] that I get something wrong...
[08:41:44] but I also worry like crazy that CNv4 will blow up, where you guys seem to be relaxed
[08:42:06] I didn't want to bring up anything RandomX because CNv4 is such a nailbiter... :)
[08:42:15] how do you guys know you don't have asics in a week or two?
[08:42:38] we don't have experience with ASIC design, but RandomX is simply designed to exactly fit CPU capabilities, which is the best you can do anyways
[08:43:09] similar as ProgPoW did with GPUs
[08:43:14] some people say they want to do asic-resistance only until the vast majority of coins has been issued
[08:43:21] that's at least reasonable
[08:43:43] yeah but progpow totally will not work as advertised :)
[08:44:08] yeah, I've seen that comment about progpow a few times already
[08:44:11] which is no surprise if you know it's just a random sales story to sell a few more GPUs
[08:44:13] RandomX is not permanent, we are expecting to switch to ASIC friendly in a few years if possible
[08:44:18] yes
[08:44:21] that makes sense
[08:44:40] linzhi-sonia: how so? will it break or will it be asic-able with decent performance gains?
[08:44:41] are you happy with CNv4 so far?
[08:45:10] ah, long story. progpow is a masterpiece of deception, let's not get into it here.
[08:45:21] if you know chip marketing it makes more sense
[08:45:24] linzhi-sonia: So far? lol! a bit early to tell, don't you think?
[08:45:35] the diff is coming down
[08:45:41] first few hours looked scary
[08:45:43] I remain skeptical: I only see ASICs being reasonable if they are already as ubiquitous as smartphones
[08:45:46] yes, so far so good
[08:46:01] we kbew the diff would not come down ubtil affter block 75
[08:46:10] yes
[08:46:22] but first few hours it looks like only 5% hashrate left
[08:46:27] looked
[08:46:29] now it's better
[08:46:51] the next worry is: when will "unexplainable" hashrate come back?
[08:47:00] you hope 2-3 months? more?
[08:47:05] so give it another couple of days. will probably overshoot to the downside, and then rise a bit as miners get updated and return
[08:47:22] 3 months minimum turnaround, yes
[08:47:28] nah
[08:47:36] don't underestimate asicmakers :)
[08:47:54] you guys don't get #1 priority on chip fabs
[08:47:56] 3 months = 90 days. do you know what is happening in those 90 days exactly? I'm pretty sure you don't. same thing as before.
[08:48:13] we don't do any secret chips btw
[08:48:21] 3 months assumes they had a complete design ready to go, and added the last minute change in 1 day
[08:48:24] do you know who is behind the hashrate that is now bricked?
[08:48:27] innosilicon?
[08:48:34] hyc: no no, and no. :)
[08:48:44] hyc: have you designed or taped out a chip before?
[08:48:51] yes, many years ago
[08:49:10] then you should know that 90 days is not a fixed number
[08:49:35] sure, but like I said, other makers have greater demand
[08:49:35] especially not if you can prepare, if you just have to modify something, or you have more programmability in the chip than some people assume
[08:50:07] we are chipmakers, we would never dare to do what you guys are doing with CNv4 :) but maybe that just means you are cooler!
[08:50:07] and yes, programmability makes some aspect of turnaround easier
[08:50:10] all fine
[08:50:10] I hope it works!
[08:50:28] do you know who is behind the hashrate that is now bricked?
[08:50:29] inno?
[08:50:41] we suspect so, but have no evidence
[08:50:44] maybe we can try to find them, but we cannot spend too much time on this
[08:50:53] it's probably not so much of a secret
[08:51:01] why should it be, right?
[08:51:10] devs want this cat-and-mouse game? devs get it...
[08:51:35] there was one leak saying it's innosilicon
[08:51:36] so you think 3 months, ok
[08:51:43] inno is cool
[08:51:46] good team
[08:51:49] IP design house
[08:51:54] in Wuhan
[08:52:06] they send their people to conferences with fake biz cards :)
[08:52:19] pretending to be other companies?
[08:52:26] sure
[08:52:28] ha ha
[08:52:39] so when we see them, we look at whatever card they carry and laugh :)
[08:52:52] they are perfectly suited for secret mining games
[08:52:59] they made at most $6 million in 2 months of mining, so I wonder if it was worth it
[08:53:10] yeah. no way to know
[08:53:15] but it's good that you calculate!
[08:53:24] this is all about cost/benefit
[08:53:25] then you also understand - imagine the value of XMR goes up 5x, 10x
[08:53:34] that whole "asic resistance" thing will come down like a house of cards
[08:53:41] I would imagine they sell immediately
[08:53:53] the investor may fully understand the risk
[08:53:57] the buyer
[08:54:13] it's not healthy, but that's another discussion
[08:54:23] so mid-June
[08:54:27] let's see
[08:54:49] I would be susprised if CNv4 ASICs show up at all
[08:54:56] surprised*
[08:54:56] why?
[08:55:05] is only an economic question
[08:55:12] yeah should be interesting. FPGAs will be near their limits as well
[08:55:16] unless XMR goes up a lot
[08:55:19] no, not *only*. it's also a technology question
[08:55:44] you believe CNv4 is "asic resistant"? which feature?
[08:55:53] it's not
[08:55:59] cnv4 = Rabdomx ?
[08:56:03] no
[08:56:07] cnv4=cryptinight/r
[08:56:11] ah
[08:56:18] CNv4 is the one we have now, I think
[08:56:21] since yesterday
[08:56:30] it's plenty enough resistant for current XMR price
[08:56:45] that may be, yes!
[08:56:55] I look at daily payouts. XMR = ca. 100k USD / day
[08:57:03] it can hold until October, but it's not asic resistant
[08:57:23] well, last 24h only 22,442 USD :)
[08:57:32] I think 80 h/s per watt ASICs are possible for CNv4
[08:57:38] linzhi-sonia where do you produce your chips? TSMC?
[08:57:44] I'm cruious how you would expect to build a randomX ASIC that outperforms ARM cores for efficiency, or Intel cores for raw speed
[08:57:48] curious
[08:58:01] yes, tsmc
[08:58:21] Our team did the world's first bitcoin asic, Avalon
[08:58:25] and upcoming 2nd gen Ryzens (64-core EPYC) will be a blast at RandomX
[08:58:28] designed and manufactured
[08:58:53] still being marketed?
[08:59:03] linzhi-sonia: do you understand what xmr wants to achieve, community-wise?
[08:59:14] Avalon? as part of Canaan Creative, yes I think so.
[08:59:25] there's not much interesting oing on in SHA256
[08:59:29] Inge-: I would think so, but please speak
[08:59:32] hyc: yes
[09:00:28] linzhi-sonia: i am curious to hear your thoughts. I am fairly new to this space myself...
[09:00:51] oh
[09:00:56] we are grandpas, and grandmas
[09:01:36] yet I have no problem understanding why ASICS are currently reviled.
[09:01:48] xmr's main differentiators to, let's say btc, are anonymity and fungibility
[09:01:58] I find the client terribly slow btw
[09:02:21] and I think the asic-forking since last may is wrong, doesn't create value and doesn't help with the project objectives
[09:02:25] which "the client" ?
[09:02:52] Monero GUI client maybe
[09:03:12] MacOS, yes
[09:03:28] What exactly is slow?
[09:03:30] linzhi-sonia: I run my own node, and use the CLI and Monerujo. Have not had issues.
[09:03:49] staying in sync
[09:03:49] linzhi-sonia: decentralization is also a key principle
[09:03:56] one that Bitcoin has failed to maintain
[09:04:39] hmm
[09:05:00] looks fairly decentralized to me. decentralization is the result of 3 goals imo: resilient, trustless, permissionless
[09:05:28] don't ask a hardware maker about physical decentralization. that's too ideological. we focus on logical decentralization.
[09:06:11] physical decentralization is important. with bulk of bitnoin mining centered on Chinese hydroelectric dams
[09:06:19] have you thought about including block data in the PoW?
[09:06:41] yes, of course.
[09:07:39] is that already in an algo?
[09:08:10] hyc: about "centered on chinese hydro" - what is your source? the best paper I know is this: https://coinshares.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Mining-Whitepaper-Final.pdf
[09:09:01] linzhi-sonia: do you mine on your ASICs before you sell them?
[09:09:13] besides testing of course
[09:09:45] that paper puts Chinese btc miners at 60% max
[09:10:05] tevador: I think everybody learned that that is not healthy long-term!
[09:10:16] because it gives the chipmaker a cost advantage over its own customers
[09:10:33] and cost advantage leads to centralization (physical and logical)
[09:10:51] you guys should know who finances progpow and why :)
[09:11:05] but let's not get into this, ha ha. want to keep the channel civilized. right OhGodAGirl ? :)
[09:11:34] tevador: so the answer is no! 100% and definitely no
[09:11:54] that "self-mining" disease was one of the problems we have now with asics, and their bad reputation (rightfully so)
[09:13:08] I plan to write a nice short 2-page paper or so on our chip design process. maybe it's interesting to some people here.
[09:13:15] basically the 5 steps I mentioned before, from math to physical
[09:13:32] linzhi-sonia: the paper you linked puts 48% of bitcoin mining in Sichuan. the total in China is much more than 60%
[09:13:38] need to run it by a few people to fix bugs, will post it here when published
[09:14:06] hyc: ok! I am just sharing the "best" document I know today. it definitely may be wrong and there may be a better one now.
[09:14:18] hyc: if you see some reports, please share
[09:14:51] hey I am really curious about this: where is a PoW algo that puts block data into the PoW?
[09:15:02] the previous paper I read is from here http://hackingdistributed.com/2018/01/15/decentralization-bitcoin-ethereum/
[09:15:38] hyc: you said that already exists? (block data in PoW)
[09:15:45] it would make verification harder
[09:15:49] linzhi-sonia: https://the-eye.eu/public/Books/campdivision.com/PDF/Computers%20General/Privacy/bitcoin/meh/hashimoto.pdf
[09:15:51] but for chips it would be interesting
[09:15:52] we discussed the possibility about a year ago https://www.reddit.com/Monero/comments/8bshrx/what_we_need_to_know_about_proof_of_work_pow/
[09:16:05] oh good links! thanks! need to read...
[09:16:06] I think that paper by dryja was original
[09:17:53] since we have a nice flow - second question I'm very curious about: has anyone thought about in-protocol rewards for other functions?
[09:18:55] we've discussed micropayments for wallets to use remote nodes
[09:18:55] you know there is a lot of work in other coins about STARK provers, zero-knowledge, etc. many of those things very compute intense, or need to be outsourced to a service (zether). For chipmakers, in-protocol rewards create an economic incentive to accelerate those things.
[09:19:50] whenever there is an in-protocol reward, you may get the power of ASICs doing something you actually want to happen
[09:19:52] it would be nice if there was some economic reward for running a fullnode, but no one has come up with much more than that afaik
[09:19:54] instead of fighting them off
[09:20:29] you need to use asics, not fight them. that's an obvious thing to say for an asicmaker...
[09:20:41] in-protocol rewards can be very powerful
[09:20:50] like I said before - unless the ASICs are so useful they're embedded in every smartphone, I dont see them being a positive for decentralization
[09:21:17] if they're a separate product, the average consumer is not going to buy them
[09:21:20] now I was talking about speedup of verifying, signing, proving, etc.
[09:21:23] they won't even know what they are
[09:22:07] if anybody wants to talk about or design in-protocol rewards, please come talk to us
[09:22:08] the average consumer also doesn't use general purpose hardware to secure blockchains either
[09:22:14] not just for PoW, in fact *NOT* for PoW
[09:22:32] it requires sw/hw co-design
[09:23:10] we are in long-term discussions/collaboration over this with Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash. just talk right now.
[09:23:16] this was recently published though suggesting more uptake though I guess https://btcmanager.com/college-students-are-the-second-biggest-miners-of-cryptocurrency/
[09:23:29] I find it pretty hard to believe their numbers
[09:24:03] well
[09:24:09] sorry, original article: https://www.pcmag.com/news/366952/college-kids-are-using-campus-electricity-to-mine-crypto
[09:24:11] just talk, no? rumors
[09:24:18] college students are already more educated than the average consumer
[09:24:29] we are not seeing many such customers anymore
[09:24:30] it's data from cisco monitoring network traffic
[09:24:33] and they're always looking for free money
[09:24:48] of course anyone with "free" electricity is inclined to do it
[09:24:57] but look at the rates, cannot make much money
[09:26:06] Ethereum is a bloated collection of bugs wrapped in a UI. I suppose they need all the help they can get
[09:26:29] Bitcoin Cash ... just another get rich quick scheme
[09:26:38] hmm :)
[09:26:51] I'll give it back to you, ok? ha ha. arrogance comes before the fall...
[09:27:17] maye we should have a little fun with CNv4 mining :)
[09:27:25] ;)
[09:27:38] come on. anyone who has watched their track record... $75M lost in ETH at DAO hack
[09:27:50] every smart contract that comes along is just waiting for another hack
[09:27:58] I just wanted to throw out the "in-protocol reward" thing, maybe someone sees the idea and wants to cowork. maybe not. maybe it's a stupid idea.
[09:29:18] linzhi-sonia: any thoughts on CN-GPU?
[09:29:55] CN-GPU has one positive aspect - it wastes chip area to implement all 18 hash algorithms
[09:30:19] you will always hear roughly the same feedback from me:
[09:30:52] "This algorithm very different, it heavy use floating point operations to hurt FPGAs and general purpose CPUs"
[09:30:56] the problem is, if it's profitable for people to buy ASIC miners and mine, it's always more profitable for the manufacturer to not sell and mine themselves
[09:31:02] "hurt"
[09:31:07] what is the point of this?
[09:31:15] it totally doesn't work
[09:31:24] you are hurting noone, just demonstrating lack of ability to think
[09:31:41] what is better: algo designed for chip, or chip designed for algo?
[09:31:43] fireice does it on daily basis, CN-GPU is a joke
[09:31:53] tevador: that's not really true, especially in a market with such large price fluctuations as cryptocurrency
[09:32:12] it's far less risky to sell miners than mine with them and pray that price doesn't crash for next six months
[09:32:14] I think it's great that crypto has a nice group of asicmakers now, hw & sw will cowork well
[09:32:36] jwinterm yes, that's why they premine them and sell after
[09:32:41] PoW is about being thermodynamically and cryptographically provable
[09:32:45] premining with them is taking on that risk
[09:32:49] not "fork when we think there are asics"
[09:32:51] business is about risk minimization
[09:32:54] that's just fear-driven
[09:33:05] Inge-: that's roughly the feedback
[09:33:24] I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but I think it's not so simple as saying "it always happens"
[09:34:00] jwinterm: it has certainly happened on BTC. and also on XMR.
[09:34:19] ironically, please think about it: these kinds of algos indeed prove the limits of the chips they were designed for. but they don't prove that you cannot implement the same algo differently! cannot!
[09:34:26] Risk minimization is not starting a business at all.
[09:34:34] proof-of-gpu-limit. proof-of-cpu-limit.
[09:34:37] imagine you have a money printing machine, would you sell it?
[09:34:39] proves nothing for an ASIC :)
[09:35:05] linzhi-sonia: thanks. I dont think anyone believes you can't make a more efficient cn-gpu asic than a gpu - but that it would not be orders of magnitude faster...
[09:35:24] ok
[09:35:44] like I say. these algos are, that's really ironic, designed to prove the limitatios of a particular chip in mind of the designer
[09:35:50] exactly the wrong way round :)
[09:36:16] like the cache size in RandomX :)
[09:36:18] beautiful
[09:36:29] someone looked at GPU designs
[09:37:31] linzhi-sonia can you elaborate? Cache size in RandomX was selected to fit CPU cache
[09:37:52] yes
[09:38:03] too large for GPU
[09:38:11] as I said, we are designing the algorithm to exactly fit CPU capabilities, I do not claim an ASIC cannot be more efficient
[09:38:16] ok!
[09:38:29] when will you do the audit?
[09:38:35] will the results be published in a document or so?
[09:38:37] I claim that single-chip ASIC is not viable, though
[09:39:06] you guys are brave, noone disputes that. 3 anti-asic hardforks now!
[09:39:18] 4th one coming
[09:39:31] 3 forks were done not only for this
[09:39:38] they had scheduled updates in the first place
[09:48:10] Monero is the #1 anti-asic fighter
[09:48:25] Monero is #1 for a lot of reasons ;)
[09:48:40] It's the coin with the most hycs.
[09:48:55] mooooo
[09:59:06] sneaky integer overflow, bug squished
[10:38:00] p0nziph0ne ([email protected]/vpn/privateinternetaccess/p0nziph0ne) has joined #monero-pow
[11:10:53] The convo here is wild
[11:12:29] it's like geo-politics at the intersection of software and hardware manufacturing for thermoeconomic value.
[11:13:05] ..and on a Sunday.
[11:15:43] midipoet: hw and sw should work together and stop silly games to devalue each other. to outsiders this is totally not attractive.
[11:16:07] I appreciate the positive energy here to try to listen, learn, understand.
[11:16:10] that's a start
[11:16:48] <-- p0nziph0ne ([email protected]/vpn/privateinternetaccess/p0nziph0ne) has quit (Quit: Leaving)
[11:16:54] we won't do silly mining against xmr "community" wishes, but not because we couldn'd do it, but because it's the wrong direction in the long run, for both sides
[11:18:57] linzhi-sonia: I agree to some extent. Though, in reality, there will always be divergence between social worlds. Not every body has the same vision of the future. Reaching societal consensus on reality tomorrow is not always easy
[11:20:25] absolutely. especially at a time when there is so much profit to be made from divisiveness.
[11:20:37] someone will want to make that profit, for sure
[11:24:32] Yes. Money distorts.
[11:24:47] Or wealth...one of the two
[11:26:35] Too much physical money will distort rays of light passing close to it indeed.
submitted by jwinterm to Monero [link] [comments]

Possible to customize SCCM Malware Alert email with Service Manager?

Currently, when a machine gets an infection, or infection is found, SCCM creates an alert, which in turn creates a ticket in Service Manager. Problem is, when the tickets are created, if say 2 or more machines get infected at the same time, SCCM/Service manager is combining the data into a single ticket.
EX:
System Center Endpoint Protection has detected malware on one or more computers in your organization Collection name: All Workstations and Laptops in Collection w/Excludes Malware Name: PUA:Win32/Spigot Number of infections: 1 Last detection time(UTC time): 1/28/2018 11:17:36 PM These are the infections of this malware: 1. Computer name: PCONE.domain.com Domain: domain Detection time(UTC time): 1/28/2018 11:17:36 PM Malware file path: containerfile:_C:\Users\xxxxx\Downloads\Setup_FLVConverter.exe;file:_C:\Users\xxxxx\Downloads\Setup_FLVConverter.exe->(nsis-6-€);webfile:_c:\ProgramData\Microsoft\Microsoft Antimalware\LocalCopy\{81F1022F-868B-4027-ABDA-28910ED23F34}-Setup_FLVConverter.exe|http://www.flv.com/appli/Setup_FLVConverter.exe;webfile:_C:\Users\dgreen3\Downloads\Setup_FLVConverter.exe|http://www.flv.com/appli/Setup_FLVConverter.exe Remediation action: NoAction Action status: Succeeded Malware Name: Trojan:Win32/Detplock Number of infections: 1 Last detection time(UTC time): 1/28/2018 11:13:50 AM These are the infections of this malware: 1. Computer name: PCTWO.domain.com Domain: domain Detection time(UTC time): 1/28/2018 11:13:50 AM Malware file path: file:_C:\Users\xxxxxxx\AppData\Local\Microsoft\Windows\Temporary Internet Files\Content.IE5\144O4U18\jquery.themepunch.revolution.min[1].js Remediation action: Remove Action status: Succeeded Malware Name: Trojan:Win32/Skeeyah.A!bit Number of infections: 1 Last detection time(UTC time): 1/28/2018 7:20:45 AM These are the infections of this malware: 1. Computer name: PCTHREE.domain.com Domain: domain Detection time(UTC time): 1/28/2018 7:20:45 AM Malware file path: file:_C:\Users\xxxxxxx\AppData\Local\Google\Chrome\User Data\Default\Cache\f_008f76 Remediation action: Remove Action status: Succeeded To view further information about malware activity in your organization, run Malware Details Report. Note: No additional Malware Detection alerts will be generated for these computers if no new infections are found in the next 24 hours. 
Even later, if a 4th PC comes in as infected, it will take this current information and append the newest PC to the top of the list. Almost like it's trying to fill up the allowed character space in the Description text box for the ticket.
In some instances, if only one machine comes through that has an infection, the ticket will have only information related to that machine.
System Center Endpoint Protection has detected malware on one or more computers in your organization Collection name: All Workstations and Laptops in Collection w/Excludes Malware Name: Trojan:Win32/Dynamer!rfn Number of infections: 1 Last detection time(UTC time): 1/2/2018 2:20:54 AM These are the infections of this malware: 1. Computer name: INFECTEDPC.domain.com Domain: domain Detection time(UTC time): 1/2/2018 2:20:54 AM Malware file path: file:_C:\Users\xxxxxx\Desktop\MEDIA\BitCoin PD\Bitcoin Mega Pack [July - Aug 2017]\Simple Mining Calculator.exe Remediation action: Remove Action status: Succeeded To view further information about malware activity in your organization, run Malware Details Report. Note: No additional Malware Detection alerts will be generated for these computers if no new infections are found in the next 24 hours. 
Even in some instances, if multiple infections are found on the same machine, the ticket will reflect only that. As it's the only one to come through at the time.
System Center Endpoint Protection has detected malware on one or more computers in your organization Collection name: All Workstations and Laptops in Collection w/Excludes These are the infections of this malware: 1. Computer name: PCONE.domain.com Domain: domain Detection time(UTC time): 9/23/2018 4:28:42 PM Malware file path: containerfile:_C:\Users\xxxxxx\Desktop\MASTERY\TECH MASTERY\BlockChain_BitCoin Ebooks\NiceHashMiner_v1.7.5.12.rar;file:_C:\Users\xxxxxx\Desktop\MASTERY\TECH MASTERY\BlockChain_BitCoin Ebooks\NiceHashMiner_v1.7.5.12.rar->NiceHashMiner_v1.7.5.12\cpuid.dll;file:_C:\Users\xxxxxx\Desktop\MASTERY\TECH MASTERY\BlockChain_BitCoin Ebooks\NiceHashMiner_v1.7.5.12.rar->NiceHashMiner_v1.7.5.12\CudaDeviceDetection.exe;file:_C:\Users\xxxxxx\Desktop\MASTERY\TECH MASTERY\BlockChain_BitCoin Ebooks\NiceHashMiner_v1.7.5.12 Remediation action: NoAction Action status: Succeeded Malware Name: Trojan:Win32/Tiggre!rfn Number of infections: 1 Last detection time(UTC time): 9/23/2018 4:28:12 PM These are the infections of this malware: 1. Computer name: PCONE.domain.com Domain: domain Detection time(UTC time): 9/23/2018 4:28:12 PM Malware file path: containerfile:_C:\Users\xxxxxx\Desktop\MASTERY\TECH MASTERY\BlockChain_BitCoin Ebooks\NiceHashMiner_v1.7.5.12.rar;file:_C:\Users\xxxxxx\Desktop\MASTERY\TECH MASTERY\BlockChain_BitCoin Ebooks\NiceHashMiner_v1.7.5.12.rar->NiceHashMiner_v1.7.5.12\NiceHashMiner.exe Remediation action: NoAction Action status: Succeeded To view further information about malware activity in your organization, run Malware Details Report. 
What I am looking to get is one ticket PER computer that comes through as infected or having an infection. The only time they should be grouped is if it's the same computer with multiple instances, as in the last example.
I was advised that SCOM would handle this. However when I reached out to our Server Ops team, the manager there said that it was SCCM that creates the alerts and triggers the emails to Service Manager. So with that being said, is it possible to configure SCCM and/or Service manager in combination to create one ticket per machine without appending the data for another machine into it?
submitted by outerlimtz to SCCM [link] [comments]

BitcoinTaxes FAQ Podcast - We answer your questions about using Bitcoin.Tax!

Disclosure: I work for BitcoinTaxes, and I host this podcast! This is the last entry in our crypto taxation podcast series, and I interviewed the founder of BitcoinTaxes. We answered questions from Reddit, Facebook, & Twitter about using our service to calculate crypto capital gains. I've posted our podcasts to this community in the past, and they seem fairly well-received. I've added timestamps to each question, in case you are rushing on your taxes and don't have time to listen to the whole thing. Any other questions, feel free to PM me. Going to be working overtime today and tomorrow helping people finish their crypto calculations!
TLDR; Q&A about using Bitcoin.Tax, a cryptocurrency capital gains calculation service.
Link to Podcast
---
The end of the tax season is quickly approaching, and this will be the last entry in our current podcast series (don't worry, we've got a new cryptocurrency series coming soon!). This podcast was created to answer and explore some of the complex questions surrounding cryptocurrency taxation. For the final entry in our Cryptocurrency Taxation Podcast series, we are answering questions, from customers, about using Bitcoin.Tax. Colin Mackie, CEO & Founder of Bitcoin.Tax, is with us today to help answer these questions, and to talk about some of the upcoming features of our software.
Colin created Bitcoin.Tax in 2013 to solve a problem for himself, and for the cryptocurrency community. Since then, Bitcoin.Tax has expanded rapidly, continues to grow, and improving to suit the needs of our customers.
Questions & Answers
[For the full answer, navigate to the portion of the podcast as indicated by the timestamp next to the question]
Q: What information goes in the Spending Tab? If I didn't make any purchases using crypto, do I still need to import my exchange data into the Spending Tab? [02:12]
A: Any non-trade where you are spending crypto to purchases goods (e.g., a gift card) or paying for services (e.g., paying for food delivery). Tips and donations are also entered in the Spending Tab, and can be categorized as such.
Q: How do I report lost or stolen crypto? Will this count as a loss? [04:25]
A: Lost and stolen crypto can be added to the Spending Tab. This will remove the cost basis of that lost/stolen crypto, but the fiat worth of the crypto will not be deducted from your capital gains.
Q: How do I report coins that are at zero (worth zero now)? [07:25]
A: Some zero-worth coins can be added to the Trading Tab as a zero-sale. However, this is a highly situational situation - always consult with a tax professional to assess what should be done about zero-worth coins.
Q: When do I use your Standard CSV? [08:42]
A: When you are trying to add data from an exchange or wallet that is not inherently supported by the system.
Q: If I transfer a coin from a wallet (whether it be purchased with fiat on Coinbase or mined) to another exchange and then sell it on this exchange, I will end up with an unmatched transaction. How do I reconcile it? Where do I enter this data in your software? [10:49]
A: This will not result in an unmatched trade, as long as you enter the source information showing the coin's acquisition as well as the data showing where/when/how it was disposed of. If the coin was purchased on Coinbase, transferred to a wallet, transferred to another exchange, and then sold on that exchange, you would only need to import your Coinbase data and import the data from the exchange that the coin was sold on. If the coin was mined, the mining income would need to be added to the Income Tab.
Q: What is the most common reason for an unmatched trade? [13:05]
A: The most common reason is a lack of data. Other common reasons include incorrectly entered data, incorrect times and dates, timezone errors, missing fork/income data, and one coin using multiple symbols.
Q: When is the appropriate time to use the "address" function? [24:05]
A: The address function is meant to pick up data that you aren't able to import any other way.
Q: Where do you get the price for crypto from? [25:20]
A: Prices typically come from the exchanges itself, when data is imported. If the software needs to do a price check for an asset, we use our own pricing data (going back to 2010) from various exchanges and sources. We use a weighted daily average from these sources.
Q: Why does Turbotax Online have a 250 line limit? [27:24]
A: We can't speak for TurboTax Online, but this is likely a limit set in place to ensure that their users can upload their data without an issue. TurboTax suggests aggregating the data, and so we offer aggregation options in response to this limit.
Q: I only ever invested 5,000 dollars, why does my report show a cost basis and proceeds in the hundreds of thousands?[31:35]
A: 1099-K forms, from exchanges, typically only show proceeds. Any time you sell or trade a coin, your proceeds go up by the fair market value of that coin, even if you traded the coin at a loss. It's important to remember that proceeds are not an indication of how much money you've profited trading cryptocurrency. The important figure, and the one that is taxed, is the capital gains (proceeds - cost basis).
Q: If I need a larger plan than I originally paid for, do I have to pay the whole price of the new plan? [34:30]
A: No. You only have to pay the difference between the plan you currently have and the plan you want to upgrade to. This can be done by going to Account -> Plan.
Q: I bought and held some crypto back in 2016 and 2017, but didn't sell them until 2018. Do I need to buy plans for all those years? [35:27]
A: It depends on if you need to report your taxes for 2016 and 2017. If yes, then you will need to purchase the plans for 2016 and 2017 in order to export the reports. If not, and you only bought crypto with fiat in those years, you can enter the data into 2016 and 2017 for free. You would also have to purchase 2016 and 2017 (as well as any year) if you did trade crypto for other crypto. All trading data from every year needs to be imported to properly calculate your gains.
Q: How do I account for forks? [37:45]
A: Forks can be added to the Income Tab. If the forked coin has a fair market value at the time of the acquisition, you can enter that value as income. If it does not, you can enter it as a zero-cost acquisition. Entering a fork as zero-cost is essentially deferring the tax on it until it is traded, in which case, you will incur the full amount of the proceeds as a capital gain.
Q: I bought some crypto back in 2017 but never withdrew any money, just traded some other alt-coins. Do I need to report anything? [39:53]
A: Buying crypto for fiat is not a taxable transaction, in itself. Once that crypto is disposed of for fiat, for another crypto, or for goods or services, then a taxable event occurs. If you only bought crypto for fiat, you do not need to report this, but you will need to keep the records of these purchases so that you have a cost basis when you do dispose of the crypto.
Q: Bittrex recently announced that they are closing down in New York state? Do I need to do anything? [42:20]
A: Download and export your data from them ASAP. In addition, it's always a good idea to consistently back up your trading records from all exchanges, in case they close down or you lose access.
Q: What are some of the new features coming to Bitcoin.Tax? [44:28]
A: Enhanced accuracy on coin pricing (from daily average to hourly average), new exchanges being supported, new CPA version (white-labeling), and calculations of maximum values on foreign exchanges for FATCA/FBAR reporting.
---
We hope that we've been able to answer some of the frequently asked questions from our customers. As always, if you need a hand, or have any questions, you can reach out to our excellent support team by visiting https://bitcoin.tax/support. Be sure to check out our regularly-updated Knowledge Base for even more answers to your questions.
Stay tuned for our next podcast series, where we will be interviewing key experts and businesses in the cryptocurrency space! If interested, shoot me a PM!
submitted by Sal-BitcoinTax to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Bitcoin ABC's "parked blocks" feature allows minority hashrate attackers to cause a permanent chain split with high probability.

BACKGROUND
------------------------------------------------------
In November, Bitcoin ABC introduced "auto-finalization" and "parked blocks" functionality in order to mitigate the risk of 51% attacks.
Roughly, the way auto-finalization works is that after receiving a new block, a node will look back ten blocks prior and mark that previous block as finalized, which means that the node will not reorg past that point without manual intervention. This prevents attackers from double spending with large reorgs, and thus provides some protection for exchanges and the like.
The parked blocks functionality is intended to prevent against medium-length reorgs by adding a proof of work penalty. Specifically, a 4+ block reorg requires double the PoW; a 1 or 2 block reorg requires an extra 1/2 blocks' worth of PoW, and a 3 block reorg requires an extra blocks' worth of PoW. These are approximations, because of BCH's DAA which changes each block, but you can find this implemented in FindMostWorkChain() in validation.cpp.
When these changes were added, there was some discussion on btc about how auto-finalization could lead to chain splits because an attacker could mine a 10 block secret chain and broadcast it right at the perfect time that the honest network has broadcast its 10th block from the fork point; however, this is a difficult attack to pull off, and the parked blocks functionality actually makes it such that the attacker would need to mine more like 20 blocks secretly (approximately, because of the DAA), which makes it nearly impossible.
However, I did not see significant discussion regarding the implications of the parked block functionality itself, and the negative way in which it interacts with auto-finalization. Here is my attempt to rectify that, by presenting an attack that could cause chain splits with moderate probability even for attackers with minority hash rate.

ATTACK:
----------------------------------------------------
1) Somehow force a soft-split with the parked chain.
2) Make sure that the soft split continues until both sides finalize a block on their side of the split (possibly via balancing hashpower on both sides of the soft split).
More specifically:
1) Mine 3 blocks before the honest network mines three blocks, and broadcast block 3 when you detect honest block 3 has been broadcast.
2) Mine such that the difficulty/work condition is fulfilled (see step 2 below regarding lowering the difficulty): block1 + 1/2*priv2 + 1/2*pub2 > pub4 + priv4. If this condition isn't met, the attacker can just try to win the split from the next step and get 3-4 block rewards
3) Ensure that each side of the soft split mines block 4 before the other side mines block 5, moving into the double-PoW penalty phase. This may require withholding blocks temporarily if "too far ahead", such that there is a 3vs3 split. Since this could happen, it improves our probability of success compared to the calculations below.
4) Mine at the tip of whichever chain is behind, such that neither side reorgs before finalizing a block on their side of the split. That is, each side must mine 7 blocks w/o being reorg'd. (Must mine 1 before the other mines 4, or 2 before 8, etc.)
--Analysis is for step 4 is complicated and thus omitted below, but this is likely to succeed, and extremely likely to succeed if the network is split close to evenly or if the attacker has substantial hash power.

Analysis:
----------------------------------------------------------
Let x = attacker hash rate; y = main chain hash rate after soft split; z = alt/"attack" chain hash rate after soft split.
-----STEP 1-------------
--Start by assuming the attacker has just mined a block and keeps it secret; then they must win 2 blocks before the honest chain wins 3
--There are 6 possible ways to win: AA, AHA, HAA, AHHA, HHAA, HAHA (A = attacker block; H = honest block.)
Pr[success] = x^2 + 2*x^2*(1-x) + 3*x^2*(1-x)^2
x = 1/20 1.4%
x = 1/10 5.23%
x = 1/4 26.17%
x = 1/3 40.74%
x = 1/2 68.75%
x = 3/5 82.08%
------STEP 2---------------
Ideally, the 4th block for both chains will be of the proper difficulty that would prevent either chain from being reorged by seeing that 4th block, in which case the soft split should persist. This occurs if the following conditions are met:
1) In order to prevent the 4th honest block from reorging our 3 private blocks, we need: privChainWork + 1/2*(privBlock1work + privBlock2work) > mainChainWork
2) In order to prevent the 4th attack block from reorging the 3 public blocks, we need: mainChainWork + 1/2*(pubBlock1work + pubBlock2work) > privChainWork
Note that pubBlock1work == privBlock1work in all cases. Some algebra:
Condition 1 priv1 + priv2 + priv3 + 1/2*priv1 + 1/2*priv2 > pub1 + pub2 + pub3 + pub4
Condition 2 pub1 + pub2 + pub3 + 1/2*pub1 + 1/2*pub2 > priv1 + priv2 + priv3 + priv4
priv1 + priv2 + priv3 > pub1 + pub2 + pub3 + pub4 - (1/2*priv1 + 1/2*priv2)
pub1 + pub2 + pub3 > priv1 + priv2 + priv3 + priv4 - (1/2*pub1 + 1/2*pub2)
pub1 + pub2 + pub3 > pub1 + pub2 + pub3 + pub4 - (1/2*priv1 + 1/2*priv2) + priv4 - (1/2*pub1 + 1/2*pub2)
0 > pub4 + priv4 - (1/2*priv1 + 1/2*priv2) - (1/2*pub1 + 1/2*pub2)
(1/2*priv1 + 1/2*priv2) + (1/2*pub1 + 1/2*pub2) > pub4 + priv4
block1 + 1/2*priv2 + 1/2*pub2 > pub4 + priv4
This is extremely likely if the difficulty is decreasing, which can happen on the private chain by mining blocks with future timestamps, and is likely on the main chain as well, since it will have less hashpower than before the fork point.
------STEP 3------------------------
--What is the probability that both chains mine block 4 before the other mines block 5?
--Assume both chains have 3 blocks already and the attacker has no secret blocks. If the attacker successfully mined block 4 already, our chances would be higher, so this is an underestimate.
--The chance of success depends on how much hash is on each side, which we don't know. Here we analyze two possibilities:
1) y = z (attacker's best case);
2) y = 3z (1/4 of the honest hash is on one side, 3/4 on the other)
--For case 1, assume the miner simply shuts off until one side wins a block, and then immediately mines the other side. They could also pick a side to start with, but we ignore that possibility. For case 2, we assume the attacker mines on the minority chain until a block is mined, and switches if the minority chain wins the first block.
Case 1:
Pr[success] = x + z = x + y
x = 1/20 52.5%
x = 1/10 55%
x = 1/4 62.5%
x = 1/3 66.67%
x = 1/2 75%
x = 3/5 80%
Case 2:
Pr[success] = (x+z)*(x+y) + y*(x+z) = x^2 + 2xy + 2yz + xz
x = 1/20 42.41%
x = 1/10 47.13%
x = 1/4 60.16%
x = 1/3 66.67%%
x = 1/2 78.13%
x = 3/5 84%
-----END STEP 3---------------------


EXAMPLE: Attacker has x fraction of the hash rate, and if he successfully finishes step 1, we assume that the difficulty works out in step 2 about half the time (probably a significant underestimate). Assume that each step is independent (not true, and causes an underestimate of success probability). Assume that the soft split that results splits the hash power 3 to 1, as in case 2 above. What is the probability of getting to the final step of the attack? How many initial blocks can the attacker expect to throw out before succeeding, and how long should this take given their hash rate?
x = 1/20 0.3% 334 blocks thrown out, 6680 blocks total, 46.4 days
x = 1/10 1.23% 82 blocks thrown out, 820 blocks total, 5.7 days
x = 1/4 7.87% 13 blocks thrown out, 52 blocks total, 8.7 hours
x = 1/3 13.58% 8 blocks thrown out, 24 blocks total, 4 hours
x = 1/2 26.86% 4 blocks thrown out, 8 blocks total, 1.3 hours
x = 3/5 34.47% 3 blocks thrown out, 5 blocks total, < 1 hour

DISCUSSION
-------------------------------------------
There are tradeoffs between protecting against chain-split attacks and protecting against deep reorgs, and a chain like that of BCH, with minority SHA-256 hashrate, must tread carefully. However, I think I have demonstrated here that there isn't a tradeoff when you have both parked blocks AND auto-finalization - the security assumption of "everything is fine if majority hashrate is honest" is no longer true, because a 33% attacker can cause a far worse outcome than a deep reorg.
That said, unlike with 51% attacks, this particular attack is one that isn't as likely to be profitable for the attacker financially, so it may not be exploited by random Internet bad guys. Also, it would require some more complicated software and is less likely to succeed without some amount of network intelligence, like knowing which nodes are miners or exchanges to target. However, it CAN still be profitable in a number of ways: shorting BCH, low-conf double spends, and/or the possible selfish mining profits that could accrue from a failure at some step of this strategy.
Timejacking may be useful to smooth over some of the parts of the attack by making sure that a timejacked node will view a block as valid/invalid when the rest of the network doesn't, via timestamp manipulation. This can buy the attacker a little bit of time, and "shape" the network such that he knows which side of the split his targets may be on. Furthermore, if the attacker fails to split the network somewhat evenly, then he can ignore the minority side of the fork and immediately start trying again on the majority side, in an attempt to cause a 3-way split.
Finally, while you may believe that this attack is improbable, the prevailing wisdom of this sub is that a super powerful cabal of bankers will stop at nothing to destroy Bitcoin Cash (operating via their alleged proxy, Blockstream), and since a well-resourced attacker should be able to pull this attack off, I believe y'all should be more concerned than you have been. My recommendation is to remove the parked block functionality from ABC entirely, and accept the risk of medium-length reorgs.
submitted by iwantfreebitcoin to btc [link] [comments]

A call to arms.

Alright redditors,
We can all sit here and shitpost or eat tons of mayo but if we make high quality shitpost we might actually help the cause.
What am I talking about? We're having a huge opportunity handed to us. Let's go over the facts.
1) There is a massive influx underway of new users. https://www.reddit.com/litecoin/comments/7ggmid/coinbase_we_are_experiencing_all_time_high/ https://twitter.com/ramikawach/status/936125519820492800
2) These are not yet all integrated into the ecosystem but yesterday we saw a preview of what this means during rising prices for the networks. ETH, BTC and LTC all set new record for transaction numbers. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-ltc.html#log#3m
3) For bitcoin this 400k transactions a day is known to be an absolute max under its current form. All blocks are full and the miners saw huge growth in the last weeks leading to an unprecedented amount of blocks mined in one day. (173 vs the hardcoded 144 (under no miner growth))
4) Ethereum saw 663k txs yesterday and 637k as an average over the last three days. It is my belief it can currently handle up to 900k, and will see mempool bloating and the rising of the fees before that.
Calculations for the 900k:
Average gas limit per block is 6,715,000: https://etherscan.io/chart/gaslimit
Average blocks per day: 6350 https://etherscan.io/chart/blocktime (need a zoom for this one) (block every 13,6 seconds)
This leads to a gas limit of 42,640,000,000 per day.
The past three days we saw on average 30,000,000,000 gas spent. https://etherscan.io/chart/gasused
This means we were at 70,35% capacity over the past three days where 637k/day were transacted.
This leaves me to believe ethereum has a total capacity of 905k/day.
5) Litecoin has exactly 4 times the capacity of bitcoin. This means it can deal with 1 million transactions per day without bloating the mempool and with 1,5 million when the mempool is fully bloated and transaction fees have risen to 1 or several dollars.
6) Bitcoin Cash is not traded on Bitstamp nor GDAX (2 of the top 10 exchanges) and is not well viewed in the core camp. It also did not see anywhere near a new ATH in terms of transactions yesterday.
7) This is exactly Charlie's vision. To use Litecoin for many smaller transaction. To have users make the shift from 100% bitcoin to 80% bitcoin / 20% litecoin. And it might happen as soon as next week. If the influx of new people is real and the ether limit of 900k proves right, there will be an unprecedented demand for transactions compounded by a decrease in output of the bitcoin network after its difficulty increase and there will be only 1 network that has both the capacity and availability on every major exchange. Litecoin.
So my proposal is to keep spreading this info, make it into reality. Showcase how great LTC functions as a payment network. I'm sure if litecoin surpasses bitcoin in number of transactions, the price will also do good things.
submitted by fatjohn1408 to litecoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin-NG: A Scalable Blockchain Protocol

arXiv:1510.02037
Date: 2015-11-11
Author(s): Ittay Eyal, Adem Efe Gencer, Emin Gun Sirer, Robbert van Renesse

Link to Paper


Abstract
Cryptocurrencies, based on and led by Bitcoin, have shown promise as infrastructure for pseudonymous online payments, cheap remittance, trustless digital asset exchange, and smart contracts. However, Bitcoin-derived blockchain protocols have inherent scalability limits that trade-off between throughput and latency and withhold the realization of this potential.This paper presents Bitcoin-NG, a new blockchain protocol designed to scale. Based on Bitcoin's blockchain protocol, Bitcoin-NG is Byzantine fault tolerant, is robust to extreme churn, and shares the same trust model obviating qualitative changes to the ecosystem.In addition to Bitcoin-NG, we introduce several novel metrics of interest in quantifying the security and efficiency of Bitcoin-like blockchain protocols. We implement Bitcoin-NG and perform large-scale experiments at 15% the size of the operational Bitcoin system, using unchanged clients of both protocols. These experiments demonstrate that Bitcoin-NG scales optimally, with bandwidth limited only by the capacity of the individual nodes and latency limited only by the propagation time of the network.

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submitted by dj-gutz to myrXiv [link] [comments]

From Platform-based Token to the Public Chain, Will CoinEx Embrace a Paradigm Shift?

From Platform-based Token to the Public Chain, Will CoinEx Embrace a Paradigm Shift?
The platform-based tokens shine in 2019, but such prosperity does not cover the disadvantage of their single use. How to find new application scenarios in addition to repurchase and destruction, and transaction fee deduction? The answer given by Binance is to expand the ecosystem of the public chain and develop the platform token into a public-chain token in a broader sense like ETH.
Not long ago, CoinEx announced its plan to launch a public chain. The CET will not just be a token listed on the platform, but also the basic token in the ecosystem of public chains. Unlike the Binance Chain whose partners serve as its nodes, CoinEx Chain chooses nodes according to the votes of ordinary users. Obviously, this is another paradigm shift for the platform-based tokens to expand the application scenarios.
CoinEx Chain is a public chain created by CoinEx’s professional blockchain underlying R&D team for DEX. Different from other DEXs, CoinEx uses three public chains: DEX public chain, Smart public chain and Privacy public chain, three of which parallel each other. They focus on transactions, smart contracts, and privacy respectively, and interoperate through “IBC protocols”.
How to get involved in CoinEx Chain’s ecosystem? A detailed interpretation of the CoinEx DEX’s public-chain node recruitment is provided below.
How to participate in the CET nodes election?
CoinEx’s nodes election rules are simple: Any holder who stakes at least 5 million CET on the chain is qualified, and the first 42 spots in the rankings will automatically be valid validators entitled to the right to generate a block and share proceeds. It should be noted that the process of electing a node is continuous and each block will be ranked.
Responsibilities of validators include preventing double signing and DDos attacks, being online all the time, upgrading nodes and configuration, building the private key storage architecture, and participating in community governance. Besides, there are server hardware requirements for running a node as below:
https://preview.redd.it/qhqk6uliftt31.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=02addf13f8d9e619b70ba75e3a6eef2f1313e6f9
After the mainnet is online (expected in early November), the CET withdrawn from CoinEx can be staked on the chain. Once completed, the staking can be canceled at any time, but it takes 21 days for the CET to return to the account.
Private investors holding less than 5 million CET will be entitled to the voting power in the election of validators and receive bonus as rewards.
How are the returns on being a CET validator?
With a study on CoinEx’s node return model, you may find returns on validators mainly come from two parts, respectively, the block reward and transaction fee.
The transaction fee includes the gas fee in the usual sense and the function fee. Relevant gas fees will be charged for any transaction initiated on the chain, and the corresponding function fee will be charged for special operations on the DEX chain. For example, equivalent to a DEX broker, a node will charge users for such operations as order matching, token issuing, trading pairs creating, automated market making with Bancor and address alias setting.
In terms of block rewards, the CoinEx Foundation will provide a total of 315 million CET for five consecutive years. To be specific, it will send out about 105 million CET in the first year and 10 CET for block rewards. Similar to the bitcoin design, block rewards will gradually decrease over time, yet at various levels of frequency. Every year 2 CET will be deducted from the reward for each block.
https://preview.redd.it/tmocf00lftt31.png?width=1566&format=png&auto=webp&s=e68bed2c3513e4665a2101229a0d781ff31f53f5
The basic data of CoinEx is shown in the figure below. According to this condition, the estimated annual income of transaction fee for CoinEx’s validators comes at around 38 million CET, and, if calculated at 50% for the staking rate of the whole network, the annualized rate of return for CoinEx’s validators is 10%.
That is to say, in a case of successful re-election of CoinEx’s validators, the basic token-standard return rate will be around 10% for the first year. This figure will be higher due to the relatively small total stakes in the beginning.
How to calculate the actual income of the year?
Here we’ve summarized a calculation formula where numbers can be quickly inserted for your reference. Suppose the total stakes on a node are a, p% of which is the CET staked by the node itself and q% of which is CET entrusted to be staked by retail traders, the total stakes of the whole network are b, the actual returns distributed by the whole network are c, and the commission ratio of the node is k, then the actual income of the validator for the year is ac(p%+kq%)/b.
For example. Suppose the total stakes at a node are 10 million CET, including 8 million CET staked by the node itself and 2 million CET staked by ordinary CET holders and the commission ratio of the node is 10%. Calculated with the total stakes of the whole network being 1 billion CET and the actual returns distributed being 150 million CET, the actual income of the validator for the year is 1.23 million CET. In such conditions, the annualized rate of return for CET is around 15.3%.
So we can see that the actual income of the CoinEx’s validators can be divided into two parts in terms of asset ownership: incomes from CET staked by the node itself and commissions from CET staked by ordinary holders.
https://preview.redd.it/4ghx0sloftt31.png?width=634&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b8df5a18cc8033c77473017cee7182f1c080c8b
In other words, if a validator can keep the CET public chain in safety, contribute to the development of CoinEx’s ecosystem, and help it gain more attention and favor from ordinary users, it can receive an annualized income that is higher than the basic staking income. Retail users may stake their CET on more professional and responsible nodes, as well as sharing the dividends of the node and the CET public chain.
In the nodes election, the Matthew effect has always been a topic of criticism. So will ordinary token holders drive the centralization of validators according to CoinEx’s rules? The answer is no. Yet just as in the case with all other PoS models, inevitable is moderate centralization, or in other words, the trade-off between decentralization and centralization. That is because, at least mathematically, the annual income from CET staked by retail traders on different validators relies on k, which is the commission ratio of the node, with a and q% of retail traders holding the same amount of CET remaining the same. That is to say, in terms of economic efficiency alone, the income of the retail trader’ votes for different nodes does not depend on the scale, but on the proportion of transaction fee and more implicit reasons such as the security and reliability (or reputation) of a node.
There are many other public chains adopting the “Supernodes” election, and what are the advantages and disadvantages of CoinEx?
There are many public chains adopting such “Supernodes” election mechanism, among which EOS and IOST are best known. So what are the similarities and differences in the nodes election between CoinEx and its counterparts?
From the perspective of the nodes election, IOST needs 2.1 million votes (one vote for one token). According to the price of 0.0044 US dollars when this document is published, it costs at least USD 9,300, a really low threshold. Blocks.io shows that EOS now requires about 290 million votes (30 votes for one token) for the top 21 supernodes. According to EOS REX’s data, if a consortium without a user base wants to get a block-generating right by renting tokens, it will cost around USD 2.55 million a year, approximately RMB 18 million. By contrast, the threshold for a CoinEx Chain’s node is only 5 million CET, a moderate cost of USD 100,000 approximately estimated at USD 0.02.
In terms of hardware, according to the hardware configuration mentioned above, it costs USD 1,000 per year. The estimated operating cost of AWS for t3.xlarge is USD 1,458 per year, and one master with a backup costs only USD 2,916 a year. (The specific data will change slightly in practice.) Take the recommended server for running a node when EOS officially announced its node election. It uses Amazon AWS EC2 host x1.32x Large, with 128-core processor, 2TB memory, 2x1920GB SSD storage space and 25Gb network bandwidth. The operating cost of such a server, with one master and one backup, is: 13.338*24*2 = USD 640 a day. (The bandwidth cost allocated to the day is negligible.) It is thus obvious that CoinEx costs less, avoiding the waste arising from servers such as EOS and thus eliminating the intangible cost.
From the number of nodes, CoinEx Chain has 42 validators, EOS has 21 block-generating nodes per round, and IOST has 63. CoinEx Chain stays in the middle of the decentralization-and-efficiency trade-offs. In addition, the estimated hardware cost of the CET node election is USD 1,000 a year, which is relatively low.
Overall, CoinEx Chain’s nodes election is designed in a reasonable way, which is destined to be a milestone for CoinEx. Once “trade-driven mining” at CoinEx and it has even gone through “repurchase and destruction”. Now it targets the DEX public chain, which is deemed as a paradigm shift that lifts CET out of the pattern of being platform-based tokens. Let’s look forward to its future development.
Follow CoinEx Chain on Social Channels:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CoinExChain
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CoinExChainOfficial/
Telegram: https://t.me/CoinExChainOrg
submitted by CoinExcom to Coinex [link] [comments]

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