[Video Essay Script] - Links will be used in video as images and segments. https://docs.google.com/document/d/12OX9TTfLhgNEfdDaMWfsHYyAMzTx9G7bSwu_0Ke1Ksc/edit?usp=sharing
Introduction to Modern Fascism
“Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”- Nazi Propagandists, Joseph Goebbels.
Axioms are our base assumptions about the world. They act as filters for new information coming into our consciousness.
In classic philosophy, an axiom is a statement that is so evident or well-established, that it is accepted without controversy or question. As used in modern logic, an axiom is a premise or starting point for reasoning.
We use these axiomatic assumptions to build our internal models of the world around us. They allow us to compare new information we receive from the outside with our internal narratives, which helps us to decide whether to reject or accept that new information. They are, for want of a better world, your "common sense" beliefs.
So how do you go about changing a relatively normal person's core beliefs and base assumptions to the point of rejecting their fellow citizens as traitors, committing acts of murderous terrorist or vigilante violence like Fascist white supremacists running down protesters in acts of terror, ISIS beheadings or mass genocide?
Shock Treatment and Slow Repetition
When I was a child I was subjected to regular mental and physical abuse from my dad. I would also see my mother repeatedly beaten up and then flee to a women's refuge where I would stay with her.
Each time my mom left, whenever I visited my dad at weekends, he would constantly try to pressure and manipulate me into convincing my mom to get back together with him.
This never worked of course. But what it did do, is make me highly sensitive to manipulation techniques.
I was fascinated by people like the magician Derren Brown and the economist Naomi Klein - who both reveal the tricks of the trade used in the advertising and marketing industries to convince people.
One way of changing people into killing machines or obedient sheep is through a big shock to the system, like how electroshock therapy allows for a clean slate to rebuild peoples intern mental models.
Psychedelics are another way, having a similar effect in the brain. Encouraged by the alt right and alt-light influencers like Jordan Peterson and Rebel Wisdom as they try to “Red Pill” people (an expression taken from the film The Matrix as a metaphor for revealing revealing the truth about the world).
They use this shock and disorientation as a way to prepare a “blank-slate” in order to rebuild peoples internal axiomatic models with different core beliefs.
Remaking people by shocking them into obedience and gas-lighting them about their existing internal models, making them seem irrational, silly or outdated. Reducing them to a mental state of a child and then rebuilding them with a new ideology and worldview, known as “shock therapy”.
As Naomi Klein explains
in The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism
, these techniques work on larger scales with use of trauma and shock to influence political outcomes has been used since at least Milton Friedman coined the term “Economic Shock Treatment”. He advised that politicians push through painful and unpopular policies all at once during a time of crisis, before people could regain their footing.
The technique is used in economic markets on the large scale, and also against individuals on a small scale with individuals too. Economics and politics is just human interaction on a larger scale, after all.
Regular repetition and gentle suggestions of ideas can also instil new axiomatic models and core beliefs into people's minds. As Derren Brown demonstrates how powerful subtly suggestions can be alone, without the need for hypnosis, shocks or drugs.
But used in combination, shock and repetition can shift people until they have moved their positions, perceptions and beliefs about the world, to a place they could never have imagined.
But luckily once you deconstruct the deception and understand how the trick works, the illusion falls apart.
Defining and Deconstructing Modern Fascism
Firstly, we must define Modern Fascism. Modern Fascism ticks every box of the traditional definitions in Umberto Eco’s essay Ur-Fascism
, and not only does it fulfil every criteria, it reveals other motivational forces and has evolved to include new aspects, and has changed into something worse, while it’s main weakness remain the same - the fact that it is primarily motivated by weakness.
As General Franco
said in a 1938 interview with Henri Massis: "Fascism presents, wherever it manifests itself, characteristics which are varied to the extent that countries and national temperaments vary. It is essentially a defensive reaction of the organism, a manifestation of the desire to live, of the desire not to die, which at certain times seizes a whole people. So each people reacts in its own way, according to its conception of life… What can it have in common with Hitlerism, which was, above all, a reaction against the state of things created by the defeat, and by the abdication and the despair that followed it?"
This quote perfectly illustrates the transient nature of the ideology, but also the core motivations of Fascism. It is an ideology based on the assumption of weakness which yearns for restoration of a past greatness or to get revenge and recognition. But the way that it manifests itself is different in each place it takes hold.
Therefore the aim of this isn’t to make the case that any particular party or country has embraced out-right fascism (plenty of other people
have made that case already), the aim is to reveal the underlying motivations, highlight threats and weaknesses and analyse the less obvious negative effects of Modern Fascism.
History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes
A false equivalence that is often used is that Liberal Imperialism is just the same as Fascism. And while it is true that imperialists use fascist dictators to extract cheap labour and resources and also dominate smaller counties in a similar way to how fascist empires aspire to rule, the key difference is that the populations of those countries are not gripped by the same fear based delusions.
And therefore more Liberal democracies are better equipped to hold their imperial position of power long term because they are better able to assess risks and react accordingly, rather than over-react based on paranoia and competing egos under excessive pressure.
This false equivalence was also used in 1930’s Germany, because far-left Communists had been co opted and infiltrated by Fascists. They would repeat the mantra that “the Social Democrats were the real racists”.
Contrary to the assumptions of most people, Fascism, as an ideology and political system of government is very distinct to white supremacy. It does of course include white supremecists, but In fact includes many other groups who have been co-opted by Fascist propaganda
, or who implicitly support and enable their agenda
Examples of modern opposition which has been repeatedly infiltrated or just simply made up by Fascists include innumerable conspiracy theories, police groups like Blue Lives Matter, militant Black nationalists, the Boogaloo movement who call for a race war, the “Proud Boys” and even sometimes supposed Anarchists
, far-left Communists
and Left Accelerationists
Motivations of Fascism
Fascism distilled down to its core reason for existing is the suppression of opposition who represent workers rights and economic justice. So they patently DON’T look after their own people. They con them into submission of the state by generating jingoistic fear of “the other” - whoever is convenient on that day to blame for their problems.
Fascism is is an economic shock doctrine upon the inhabitants of the country. We don't spread fascist propaganda in tip-pot dictators because we care about the indiginous people there. We install Fascist dictators in order to remove workers rights and open up access to their natural resources.
Artificial moral panics can be engineered and real disasters used to allow corrupt oligarchs
and financial predators to consolidate power further by buying up small innovative businesses who don’t have the excess capital to survive the turmoil on their own without external support. Or as a way to eradicate public services by sabotaging them and building mistrust.
They are used to erode faith in public services and institutions by rich people who simply want to pay less tax and don’t see why they should subsidise other human beings who haven’t had the same luck as them. So a major motivation of fascism is to suppress the opposition left-wing party who represent workers rights and egalitarian freedoms.
Populists claim to be against free trade and to some extent they are, but whatever they do will fail because they are interfering with the markets, so they will retreat to the power of market domination. They use their threats of trade barriers as more just more shock treatment for markets, rather than protecting actual jobs or industries.
This is a trick that has been played by Neoliberals too
. But while Neoliberals use fascism as a tool for opening markets to Imperialism, they differ from Libertarians, not only because they embrace guns and weed, but they are starting from different positions to achieve the same goal;
Neoliberals seek to remove already existing public services and workers rights that lift bargaining power. But Libertarians want to STOP the government from ever providing those services and investments into the poor or enshrining workers rights.
Modern Fascist Ideology has TWO Core Reasons to Exist; Fear and Freed.
I have been researching and analysing how economic systems differ, using a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threads). For each economic system I tried to be as neutral, fair and balanced as possible - which included Fascism.
I might seem strange that someone who is anti-Fascist would want to explore the strenghts and opportunities of Fascist ideologies, but in doing so it reveals the real weaknesses and threats which are too important for us to ignore.
So what exactly IS Fascism? Is it just an economic doctrine or a personal philosophy about the world? The answer is both.
The ideology has TWO core reasons to exist, and TWO distinct audiences types - with one based primarily on fear and the other greed, with each having a malignant and symbiotic relationship
with each other. Fear -
Authoritarian/Conservative Fascists Greed -
There are very few people who actually buy into full Fascist ideology, most believe a watered down version of which resembles Conservatism or right-wing populism or accelerationism, and most of them genuinely believe they aren’t fascist, even though they are being constantly fed subtle suggestions fascist ideology or that align with their plans.
But the most ironic thing is that these groups are mostly being used by the second group of rich Libertarians globalist elites pulling a confidence trick on the host nation. Often posing “anti-establishment” conspiracists who actually uphold the establishment through misinformation. See: Russia Today and Youtube Bitcoin and Gold shills who subtly suggest fascist talking points.
With those rich Libertarians at the top more than happy for those below them, who they deem less worthy, living in even more delusional ideologies with fake enemies to fear, often resembling traditional Christian but values wrapped in modern conspiracies with added elements of “satanic panic”.
Modern Fascism has clearly inspired the modern day equivalents of Brownshirts and Blackshirts, self-styled vigilantes like QAnon, The Proud Boys and “The Boogaloo” - white nationalist violent extremists who want to accelerate towards a full-on race war.
It has also infiltrated numerous alternative groups, such as hyper-evangelical “end times” cults, alternative health scenes, internet conspiracy scenes like flat earth
and occult magic.
A commonly missing hallmark of fascism that is present in history during the rise of fascism is a controlled opposition and explicit suppression of opposition. This distorts a healthy society and has unforeseen consequences and blowback.
Fantasies and political thought bubbles are self delusional custom realities resembling an episode of Black Mirror
. They act as coping and escape mechanisms. Especially during the Covid 19 lock-down, these tendencies have gone into overdrive
with massive events entering the real world featuring David Ike leading protesters alongside fascists as people ignore rising Fascism
, climate change destruction and Covid deaths tolls.
Using disasters like Covid or irrational scare tactics such as the "Satanic Panic" style Fascist propaganda from QAnon
, can shock people using their fear and disgust response, while making them distrust the news - allowing the government to evade valid criticism from experts while suggesting to people that government public services are inherently evil or Communist.
This type of propaganda is a Libertarians wet dream - making a population not only give up on tax funded public services, but actively fear
them. An example is Trump trying to discredit and defund the US Postal Service and other public institutions and regulatory bodies.
Anti Semitism has been used throughout history by those in power to provoke an “us vs. them” mentality, leading to today's establishment still sanctioning and allowing Qanon on major media platforms, provoking and agitating terrorist attackers from the far-left
and the far-right.
Those in power in fascist regimes allow and encourage mistrust in the mainstream media, while the long-tail niche political and interest groups keep people separated from each other, who each live in their own custom realities while the real elites continue to dominate and increase their power.
With each bubble framing realities based of identity, race, class, nationality, or even subculture special interests like alternative medicine and “gamer bro” culture, so that when they interact in real life or online, they are speaking past each other because they don’t even agree on the basic principles of how they view society.
The Fatal Flaws of Living in a Fantasy
While the main flaws and weaknesses of Fascism remain the same, they are in-fact exacerbated by this new hybrid model. It’s main weakness is the very fact that it is motivated by weaknesses, fear and greed - rather than true strength, self-confidence or heroic benevolent power, as their adherents like to believe.
A misconception of fascists themselves that it is based on strength, when it is actually based on weakness - even when the driving force is greed rather than fear. Libertarian fascists want to extract labour and materials at cheaper prices, while inflating their own asset values.
In other words; international financiers with little allegiance to any country. Ironically the very type of people who Conservative fascists
claim to be opposed to.
Fascism claims to make society more successful, but it actually accelerates the destruction of the culture, country or people, rather than preserving and conserving it, because it betrays a fundamental weakness of insecurity. Competitors and rivals can easily see through the charade of and take advantage.
If anything does the exact opposite. Russian and China are clearly goading Western nations into becoming more divided and totalitarian, as they themselves benefit from becoming more Liberal and open and reap the competitive advantages that brings. See Kraut’s excellent video about Trump on China
as an example. Keynesian investment
in the country and people, giving workers more rights, opportunities and a more bargaining power is what makes a country successful and innovative, rather than the faux Keynesian policy of giving kickbacks to corrupt officials for government contracts and widening inequality by supporting the already rich, rather than the ordinary people.
Who Benefits in This Memetic War?
Who is going to war with who? Who is winning? A modern adage is that tankies are just fascists because of their support of authoritarian proto-fascist leaders and regimes who often claim to be Communist.
But from my experience talking to actual fascists, they crave a more multi-polar world where other strong leaders rise up as competition and form alliances with dictators.
So to me, it looks like Fascists are the real Tankies; wishing our enemies be stronger and wanting to accelerate towards race war or civil war that weakens the society.
Not only did Donald Trump have knowledge of Russia allowing ISIS bounties on US troops and withhold that from the public while courting Putin, I have personally heard white supremacists backing extremists Islamists in Discord servers.
Trump jumped to the defense
of the people who put a 17 year old with a gun against civil rights protesters and assumed the intent before saying that the outcome should be decided by the legal system.
They share common values and beliefs like Anti Semitism, accelerationist end-times fantasies, patriarchal traditional values and a fear of outside progressive cultures. In fact modern extremists white supremecist groups share recruitment and terrorist strategies and tactics with militant islamists.
You could argue that it was inflicted by Russian or Imperialist propagandists onto the German people in order to take control of larger areas of Europe after the destabilisation of war.
Hitler and Stalin came to a non agression truce called The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact
, which as was a secret non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union that enabled those two powers to partition Poland between them.
The pact, signed in Moscow on 23 August 1939 by German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop and Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov was officially known as the Treaty of Non-Aggression between Germany and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
They divided Poland under the banner of fighting “Polish Fascism” nearly a century ago with both sides ultimately lying to their own people about spreading freedom while being authoritarian to their core and being able to blame “the other” as being the cause of all their problems.
But these days fascism seems to be a rogue meme
that no longer serves any particular group. It is pathologically damaging to any society that it happens to grip.
Even the aforementioned Libertarians and accelerationists who think they are benefiting are only temporarily gaining by market price volatility. They ultimately lose through the blowback effect of the whirlpool they create.
Psychopathy, Alienation Nihilism and Insecurity
It is well established
that Fascist dictators are driven by psychopathic characters and tendencies. They either don’t care about the truth, or disregard it if it’s not convenient to their narrative.
In totalitarian despotic societies
facts are reversed. As George Orwell proclaimed throughout his writings; “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.”.
Similar to how authoritarian Starlinist Communists harnessed people’s alienation and tricked them into thinking that it’s possible for the state to fully decommodify everything without having markets, money to account for things
, domination or hierarchy or try to convince people that a revolution is just around the corner
But of course, a council representative is still the head of an organisation, for all intents and purposes, because they wield executive power over others, even if the name has changed. Markets are emergent properties when groups of humans want or need a certain commodity when it becomes available.
But while both Communist and Fascist ideologies are based on lies that harness peoples alienation, fear and envy, Fascism is also especially to the weak. It is attractive to those who want to be strong again (or were never to begin with), or those who want to have a strong leader to help them.
Fascism betrays to others the inherent weakness. Like the insecure kid in school who lashes out - others around can see that it is because of their own insecurity which makes them appear even weaker. Fascism is a psychopathy driven by insecurity.
When people become so absorbed in an ideology there is a phenomena of people to self identify as an actual ideology? This produces a phenomena called Identity Protective Cognition
, where people's self worth becomes attached to a belief system or ideology. So that when new information contradicts their worldview it is seen as an attack on the person themselves.
Therefore irrational, emotional quick fix thinking is the default when there is too much pressure and they feel attacked. They no longer use their slow effortful reflective thinking. (See Daniel Kahneman - Thinking, Fast and Slow
This approach has parallels in evolutionary biology, in which a central issue is the ability to adapt to changing environments. Competency - over-competitiveness in management causes chaos which STOPS hierarchies of competence. (Insert video clips of Sapolsky on Chaos vs Reductionism etc. timestamps linked).
Fascists try to reduce variability in culture and outcomes - causes weakness of less adaptability - because as Sapolsky explains, the variability is not just noise in that type of system CAS (Complex Adaptive Systems
) - the variability IS the system
. It is fractal and scale free. The noise and variability is an intrinsic part of the system.
But the system doesn’t function properly when the agreed-upon parameters that individuals believe to be true aren’t universal enough to have any form of group coherence. Birds and swarms
of animals can produce amazing complex phenomena, which are greater than the sum of their individual parts. There is a “network effect” once a certain threshold and certain conditions and rules are met.
These rules can be very simple, like repulsion or attraction, or staying a certain distance apart while traveling in a similar direction, but collectively they create patterns that emerge with complexity
and I dear say, a certain amount of beauty
So what happens when millions of people are being brainwashed and misled by cults that are leaving them with a reduced ability to make decisions?
Giving them shit-for-brains just so that some rich people at the top can pay a few percentage less tax? That is the sign of a deeply sick system that cannot continue to function effectively. It is sick on so many levels.
Emergence, Complexity and Human Evolution - A Social-Biological Analysis
The problem with viewing the world through only one lens of analysis (or bucket of knowledge) is that you can fall into unnecessarily reductive thinking. (Sapolsky clips)
I describe myself as a philosophical anarchist. Which does NOT mean I want total chaos and disorder - it means I want the optimal solution to emerge - including the influences and experiences from the bottom-up.
I also think that a bottom-up (or anarchist) lens of analysis is necessary for society to run cohesively in an optimal state. If it is repressed it distorts the overall picture of reality for everyone - similar to a CEO that doesn’t listen to employees and workers on the ground.
I interpret as constantly holding authority to account - to justify its existence and reason for dominating others. I also believe it is every citizen's responsibility to hold authority to account. This would be necessary under ANY economic system or society.
Anarchists also believe in stigmenric, rhizomatic action to make the world better, organically, not from a top-down authority, which fascism seeks to instill on society.
Human beings are collectively parts of a bigger chaotic but stable system known as a CAS (Complex Adaptive System
). CAS’s are chaotic systems that can reach periodic steady states of equilibrium
As Professor Sapolsky explains, humans uniquely exist with a mixture of both communal and individualistic tendencies; known in the scientific world as Tournament vs. pair bonding
All the evidence suggests that this tendency has greatly improved our success as a species. But those tendencies distorted too far one way or another lead to pathologies and the worst collective misdeeds and wars.
Because as Professor Sapolsky also explains in his brilliant lecture series (which I have condensed the pertinent parts of into a 4 part
YouTube video) about CAS; the signals coming from the randomness is being suppressed or repressed, it interferes with the functioning of the system.
Pressure in the system makes the patterns more complex but at a certain point
of increasing pressure in the complex system, it stops being linear and the doubling of patterns and periodicity totally stops. Order completely begins to break down because of the butterfly effect.
Fascist regimes fettishise order and rigidity but in a complex adaptive system, the noise IS the phenomena, not a byproduct to be discarded, ignored or repressed.
The majority of people on the right genuinely want to help society by bringing order, using top-down draconian measures if necessary. Whereas the left generally wants to help society by proactively building from the bottom up.
I think both of these approaches are necessary to be balanced properly for a healthy functioning society to emerge.
It seems our tendency to harness both traits and to focus intently on one or the other is our greatest collective strength, while also being our greatest weakness.
And similarly, on an individual level I believe our greatest strengths and weakness are the fact that our brains work efficiently by categorising information to filter out the unimportant bits that slow us down.
As the book by Daniel Kahneman - Thinking, Fast and Slow
, brilliantly explains, slow deliberate, consideration thinking takes energy and time, so our brains developed filters which come out as biases. This is an inherent weakness of the human brain.
Now imagine the butterfly effect on the life of just one person who is influenced by the brainworms of QAnon cults or conspiracies
which distorts their internal models of the world which they use to filter information about the world
The sad and shocking stories on forums like QanonCasualties
show the devastating effects on their close friends, family and work life - amplified by their ever increasingly disconnected lives. (insert Flat earther clip - zoom in on idiot rolling head
Now scale that up to the level of a whole of a society, a country, or the world? This is a collective madness to cope with and avoid the reality facing us as a species.
Only collective action with agreed basic facts to work from will do to avoid the total descent into actual chaos and destruction.
TLDR; Conclusion and Final Thoughts
In this essay I will have put forward the case for the following four key arguments being true and I have present supporting evidence to explain the logical reasoning for why our current definitions need updating and the threat levels reassed, from a non-hysterical but critical perspective. The overall claims I made are:
- Modern Fascism has taken over right-wing populism and bears all the hallmarks of early 20th Century Fascist ideologies.
- The ideology has two main reasons to exist, and two distinct audiences which both have a symbiotic, pathological relationship with each other.
- The main flaws and weaknesses of fascist ideology remain the same as ever - that fascism is motivated by irrational fears, greed and self deception.
- Modern Fascism has major unforeseen damaging consequences for individuals, governments, organisational dynamics, and society at large.
This reality is something I think a lot of fascists, ultra-nationalists and people who have been influenced by the propaganda know deep down on some level already - that they are avoiding the realities of pandemics and ecological harms of ignoring science and reality as it is.
They ignore it because fantasies are simpler to understand. And a narrative based on fear of the other is a simpler way to to process a complex world.
It is also attractive to the part of us that is drawn to conflict and drama - that hunger for something genuinely interesting to happen.
But I would argue from my experience that the beautiful complexity of life in all it’s shades of grey is much more interesting, fun and genuinely fulfilling to understand and engage in, even if it might be harder to deal with and even harder to explain
I believe doing so is also vital for the very survival of our species - we can no longer afford to live in a fantasy, we need to collectively take responsibility for the world as it exists in reality.
Thank you to my two Patrons: Carmen Jongepier E.V. Roske Original Script on Patreon
“In the long run, we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean will be flat again.” - John Maynard Keynes submitted by
Cryptocurrency Supply Algorithms And The Equation Of Exchange
Although I am a proponent for Bitcoin and view it as a good store-of-value, my belief is that all of the algorithms for cryptocurrency supply models that I have seen to date are not amenable to creating a cryptocurrency useful as a general currency. That is as a means for exchange-of-value as opposed to store-of-value. The following is my brief description of the models that I am aware of, followed by an explanation of why I believe they are not useful for as general currencies. At the bottom, I make a concluding remark on what I believe is a missing feature needed to realize a general currency.
Coin Supply Algorithms N+1
In an N+1 algorithm, each time a block is produced, a constant incentive reward is added to the supply of coins. This means explicitly that the size of the coin supply will grow forever, unlimited. This sounds pretty good on the surface. If you are a miner, you are guaranteed that there will always be an incentive reward available for mining.
If we look at this from a total coin supply viewpoint, and a little high school math, the normalized change in supply is:
We then want to ask the question, how fast is the coin supply changing, as N goes to infinity since we are assuming that blocks are produced forever. This is:
Lim N->∞ N+1/N
Where N is the number of blocks produced. By L’Hôpital’s rule for those that remember a little highschool calculus (I had to look it up), we can take the derivatives of the numerator and denominator which results in 1/1 = 1. In the limit at infinity, the coin supply is a constant value, even though theoretically it grows forever.
Since infinity is only theoretical, what does this look like for blockchain use cases:
To give a feel for it, imagine that we are at the following 4 stages: 10 blocks have been produced; 100 blocks have been produced; 1000 blocks have been produced, and 10000 blocks have been produced. Adding one reward at each stage gives the following percent change in coin supply:
1 — (10 + 1)/10 = 10%
1 — (100+1)/100 = 1%
1 — (1000+1)/1000 = .1%
1 — (10000+1)/10000 = .01%
This demonstrates that the change in coin supply quickly dwindles to an insignificant amount, even though it continues to grow forever. To put this another way, the addition of each new incentive reward quickly becomes a very small fraction of the total coin supply. The coin supply can be thought of as relatively constant. N + M*N/2T or N(1+M/2T)
T is units of time in discrete steps, and M is the number of blocks produced at each step. This is essentially the Bitcoin model. To make this clearer let’s assume that there is only 1 block produced at each step. This becomes N + N/2T or N(1+1/2T).
If we replace 2T with a new variable K, then this becomes:
Where K increases forever. The summation of 1/K is the harmonic series and increases forever. Therefore, just like N+1 above, N(1+1/K) or N+N/K also increases forever. As with N+1, the rate of increase of the coin supply is then:
This is more simply 1 + 1/K. Thus, as K grows, we can see that the rate of increase tends towards zero as well. Further, since 1/K becomes a smaller and smaller fraction, eventually representing this as a value in a computer becomes impossible. For example, Bitcoin’s smallest fraction is 1 satoshi. When 1/K becomes smaller than 1 satoshi it will no longer be possible to have an incentive reward for a single block produced.
A third coin supply algorithm is a simple constant amount created in the genesis block. The coins are usually distributed using an airdrop or similar model. Since coins are not being created, the coin supply is by definition constant. If the distribution model used is an incentive reward model to distribute from the pool of coins, it is indistinguishable from one of the above 2 models. If the distribution model is a one-time event, such that all the coins are distributed then there is no incentive reward model.
From a viewpoint of use of currency all 3 models described above can be thought of as equivalent, given enough blocks have been produced for the first 2 models.
Marked To External Asset
There is the fourth model for coin supply which is intended to mark the value of the coin to an external index of some kind. This may be a physical asset like an ounce of gold, or another commodity. In this model, the coin can explicitly represent a unit of the external asset such as an ounce of gold. Regardless of whether the coin can be exchanged for the underlying asset or not, given that supply of commodities such as gold are constantly following the same mining algorithms as above, the marked to asset model is a constant coin supply model. If the distribution model used is an incentive reward model, then it is similar to the third model.
Marked To Value Of External Asset
There is a fifth model for coin supply where the value of the coin is marked to the value of an external asset like the USD, instead of the supply of the external asset, as was the case for marking to a commodity. In this model, the coin supply is changed to reflect the exchange rate of the coin against the value of the external asset. The objective is to keep the exchange rate constant on average over time. For example: assuming the objective is a 1-to-1 exchange between the coin and the USD, then if the coin’s value increases above the objective, more coins are printed, and vice-versa. That is, if the value of the coin decreases, given some means (i.e. burning), the coin supply is decreased to bring the exchange rate towards the objective.
In this model, the coin supply is not fixed but varies with the exchange rate. To the extent that the value of the external asset is relatively constant, and the value of the coin is relatively constant the coin supply will be relatively constant.
Although marking to the USD would seem to be a good idea, given that it is called a “reserve currency”, the USD is intentionally subject to inflation, theoretically, the coin to USD exchange will continue to decrease, requiring the coin supply to be decreased to maintain the objective of a constant exchange rate. Over time, this model can be viewed as decreasing the coin supply if marked to the inflationary external asset value.
Comparing Coin Supply Models
In summary, of the five models described above, four of them are essentially variations on a constant coin supply using various means to distribute the coin, while the fifth tries to keep the value of the coin constant against an external asset value, by managing the supply of the coin.
The equation of exchange: M * V = P * Y
tells us that if the amount of money supply, M, (i.e. the coin supply) is constant, and the velocity of money is relatively constant, then an increase in demands for goods (Y), will cause a decrease in the price (P), price deflation. That is, with a fixed coin supply the price of goods is expected to drop, thus increasing the value of the coin. Bitcoin’s increase in value is an example of this. (The Bitcoin ledger does not have the means to determine either prices (P) or goods (Y). Instead, I am inferring from the increase in the value of bitcoins that an increase in demand for Y is occurring. There are possible other explanations.)
However, it should be noted that in order for the equation of exchange to be valid, the assumption of the velocity of money is relatively constant must hold. If holders of the coin stop using it as a currency for the exchange of value, then the M * V = M * 0 = 0. There is no price in that coin for any goods or services. That is, the value of the coin collapses.
Conversely, if the velocity of the coin were to increase significantly, then this creates effectively more available coin, resulting in the price (P) of the goods and services (Y) to increase. This causes price inflation, which encourages coin holders to spend their coin as fast as possible to avoid losing value in the coin. As the price of goods becomes excessive, people shift from the coin to other forms of currency. As this happens, once more a collapse happens.
At an equilibrium point, the coin supply is constant, the velocity is constant, the demand for goods and services is constant, and therefore the price would be constant. At such an equilibrium point, a constant coin supply would be ideal. However, we can observe throughout history that such an equilibrium point is never reached.
Given any sort of constant coin supply, the value of the coin is expected to vary unpredictably and often wildly. Of the 5 models, the first 4 will always be subject to this. Although this may be interesting for speculators, usefulness for general currency is questionable.
The fifth model is to manage the coin supply against an external asset value. In essence, this is a substitution of the coin for the asset. Provided that the coin supply can be managed to reflect the objective exchange rate, the value of the coin should be stable relative to the stability of the external asset value.
However, in my opinion, this marking of value does not take into account exchanges that are wholly internal to the coin and its blockchain. The transfer of a coin balance from one account to another implies an exchange of value, thus the equation of exchange applies internally to the blockchain. This exchange of value is independent of the exchange rate of the coin value versus the external asset value. Thus, the coin supply can be seen as independent of the exchange of value on the blockchain.
Given this assumption, we can make the simplifying assumption that the coin supply is relatively constant with respect to the exchange of value on the blockchain. As a result, one would expect that even though the coin supply is managed against the exchange rate with an external asset, its value can still fluctuate wildly, beyond the ability of coin supply management to compensate. This, in turn, will impact the exchange rate, destroying the intended objective.
As a natural consequence, even with the approach of marking the value of the coin to external asset value, such as the USD, the expected volatility limits the usefulness of the coin as a currency.
Towards A General Currency
As stated in the introduction, I believe that none of the cryptocurrency models described are viable for use as general currencies. In my opinion, my brief non-rigorous analysis above demonstrates this likely to be true. The question remains, what else is needed to create a cryptocurrency that is viable as a general currency.
The equation of exchange shows us what is missing directly: In the equation M * V = P * Y, we can say that on every blockchain we can know the values of M and V directly. The account ledger explicitly shows us this, (ignoring encrypted exchanges). What we do not know is the other side of the equation. We do not know either price (P) or goods and services (Y) for any exchanges that are internal to the blockchain, that is between accounts on the blockchain.
If we compare cryptocurrencies with national fiat currencies, and cryptocurrency exchanges with foreign exchanges, we can see that the foreign exchanges relate the difference in prices in related economies. In comparison, the cryptocurrency exchanges appear to only relate the difference in demand for the cryptocurrencies themselves. This demand only manifests itself during the exchange of cryptocurrencies for each other and between fiat and cryptocurrencies and vice-versa.
It is my position that because the internal use of cryptocurrencies on their own blockchains is currently hidden, none of the above coin supply models will create a currency stable enough to be useful as a general currency. If/when a cryptocurrency model is created that takes into account the currently hidden internal exchange of value, then we will have realized a general currency.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_exchange
Mining is a crucial part of the Bitcoin network. But to most Bitcoin holders it’s a relatively mysterious business. Mining is where Bitcoin connects the internet to the real world. A lot of… Bitcoin has been making headlines during the past year. A digital, person-to-person currency with no central bank, Bitcoin was established in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto. At the beginning of 2017, one bitcoin had an exchange rate of $1,000. At press time (Jan. 2018), one bitcoin is worth about $10,800. That’s an increase of 980 percent. Graham ... Show me the money Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are useless. For blockchains, the jury is still out . Leaders Aug 30th 2018 edition. Aug 30th 2018. AN OLD saying holds that markets are ruled ... Crypto economist Alex Kruger expects Bitcoin to potentially fall to $9,000 amid the current global economic uncertainty. Apart from the COVID-19 induced stock market stress, uncertainty over the contest, and delays of the upcoming US presidential election could also be a factor for Bitcoin’s price to experience high volatility. Bitcoin is currently trading at $10,452 at press time, the world ... Economist's Take on Bitcoins. Economist c575? 7 years ago # QUOTE 3 Good 3 No Good! Economist c993. will never become an important currency due to inherent deflation 7 years ago # QUOTE 17 Good 1 No Good! Economist c575. will never become an important currency due to inherent deflation. deflation from what? the fixed amount of the currency? I suppose thats true. Good point. Others? 7 years ago ...
Was für ein Wahnsinn: Kryptowährungen bringen Renditen, von den sich vor ein paar Jahren träumen ließ. Kann die Bitcoin-Rally immer weiter gehen? Fondsmanage... "Wolf of Wall Street" Jordan Belfort warns Richard Quest about getting into bitcoin. PLEASE HELP ME WIN THE RTX STREAM ON CONTEST BY FOLLOWING ME ON TWITCH!! http://www.twitch.tv/veritas https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/20-series/rtx-for-... Jim Rickards is the editor of Strategic Intelligence and the author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis. He believes gold can go to $10,00... Paul Donovan, UBS, on whether bitcoin is in its death throes. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and...